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Modelling the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem: From Winds to Predators

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Marine Coastal Ecosystems Modelling and Conservation

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Abstract

Atmospheric models with embedded domains off Peru have been used to simulate surface winds. Coastal wind dynamics were simulated to investigate the effect of two warming conditions: impact of El Niño event and impact of regional climate change. During the 1997–1998 El Niño, a counter-intuitive coastal wind increase was observed; sensitivity experiments showed that the inhomogeneous alongshore surface warming, larger in the north, drives an enhanced alongshore pressure gradient that accelerates the alongshore wind. Under the “worst case” RCP8.5 climate change scenario, coastal summer winds decrease (<5%) whereas coastal winter winds increase (<10%), thus slightly reinforcing the seasonal cycle, these wind changes were mainly associated with changes in the intensity and position of the South Pacific Anticyclone. Physical-biogeochemical models off Peru have been used to reproduce the oceanographic conditions from 1958 to 2008. Primary productivity and dissolved oxygen were simulated to investigate the effect of El Niño events. During El Niño, the productivity decreases due to nutrient depletion associated with intense downwelling Coastal Trapped Waves and due to an enhanced light limitation in summer. The surface layer becomes more ventilated as the oxycline deepens in association with the thermocline. The enhanced eddy kinetic energy also impacts eddy fluxes of nutrient and oxygen. During the last decades, the large-scale remote forcing associated with equatorial variability mainly drives the summer chlorophyll increase and progressive deoxygenation trends during the last decades, whereas local winds play a minor role.

Multispecific ecotrophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem have been used to simulate energy flows through the food web, during El Niño and La Niña conditions. Steady-state models simulated a decrease in total throughput and ecosystem organization during 1997–98 El Niño. Time dynamic models simulated contributions of several external drivers, being most important fishing rate, followed by mesopelagics immigration and phytoplankton changes. These basic models will contribute to implement the ecosystem approach to fisheries, allowing to assess the impact of fishing and environmental factors on economically important species such as anchovy and hake.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank our partners during the implementation of several models for the NHCE in the LMOECC: Pierrick Penven, Vincent Echevin, and Francois Colas during the implementation of WRF and ROMS-PISCES models; Marc Taylor, Matthias Wolff, and Moritz Stäbler during the implementation of EwE; Timothée Brochier and Jorge Flores during the implementation of Ichthyop model; Martin Marzloff and Ricardo Oliveros during the implementation of OSMOSE model; Arturo Aguirre, Laure Pecquerie, and Takeshi Okunishi for the on-going support in the implementation of bioenergetic models. We also acknowledge the support of IRD and IADB for donating High Performance Computing Clusters to IMARPE, which allowed to run several ecosystem submodels for the NHCE. Finally, special thanks to the LMOECC staff (Cinthia Arellano, Carlos Quispe, Yván Romero, and Jorge Ramos) as well as the observational staff from IMARPE which was crucial to validate and interpret the model outputs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratorio de Modelado Oceanográfico, Ecosistémico y del Cambio Climático (LMOECC), Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Callao, Peru

    Jorge Tam, Adolfo Chamorro & Dante Espinoza-Morriberón

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  1. Jorge Tam
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  2. Adolfo Chamorro
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  3. Dante Espinoza-Morriberón
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Correspondence to Jorge Tam .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratorio de Modelamiento de Sistemas, Ecológicos Complejos (LAMSEC), Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile, Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Alexander von Humboldt, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y Recursos Biológicos, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile, Instituto Antofagasta, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile

    Marco Ortiz

  2. Balaton Limnological Institute, Centre for Ecological Research, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Napoli, Italy, Tihany, Hungary

    Ferenc Jordán

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Tam, J., Chamorro, A., Espinoza-Morriberón, D. (2021). Modelling the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem: From Winds to Predators. In: Ortiz, M., Jordán, F. (eds) Marine Coastal Ecosystems Modelling and Conservation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58211-1_3

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