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Can artificial neural networks estimate potential evapotranspiration in Peruvian highlands?

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Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important variables of the water cycle when water requirements for irrigation, water resource planning or hydrological applications are analyzed. In this context, models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) of the retro-propagation type can be an alternative method to estimate ETo in highland regions using a number of input variables limited. The objective of this study is to develop ANN models to estimate ETo for the Peruvian highlands using input variables such as maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum air temperature (Tmin), hours of sunshine (Sh), relative humidity (Rh) and wind speed (Wv), as an alternative method to FAO Penman–Monteith method (FAO-PM56) and Hargreaves–Samani (HS). Daily climatic datasets recorded at 12 meteorological stations between 1963 and 2015 were selected in this study. For evaluation reason, the ETo calculated using the FAO-PM56 was also considered. The main input variable to ANN modeling is Tmax, followed by Sh and Wv or combinations between them. Hargreaves–Samani (HS) showed a poor performance in the estimation of the ETo in the Peruvian highlands compared to the 13 ANN models. Additionally, it was determined that in stations with lower thermal amplitude (< 14.2 °C) the lowest performance levels are presented in the estimation of the ETo with HS equation, which does not occur markedly with the ANN models that they estimate adequately ETo. Therefore, ANN models represent a great option to replace the FAO-PM56 and HS method, when ETo data series are scarce.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (SENAMHI) for providing us the climatic information used in this investigation. They also would like to acknowledge Programa de Doctorado en Recursos Hídricos of the Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina for providing support in the development of this research.

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Correspondence to Wilber Laqui.

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This statement is to certify that all Authors have contributed significantly to the work, have read the manuscript, attest to the validity and legitimacy of the data and its interpretation, and agree to its submission to the Neural Computing & Applications Journal. We warrant that the article is the Authors’ original work. We warrant that the article has not received prior publication and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere. All authors agree that author list is correct in its content and order and that no modification to the author list. Therefore, we have no conflicts of interest to disclose. On behalf of all Co-Authors, the corresponding Author shall bear full responsibility for the submission.

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Laqui, W., Zubieta, R., Rau, P. et al. Can artificial neural networks estimate potential evapotranspiration in Peruvian highlands?. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 5, 1911–1924 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00647-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00647-2

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