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A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa, Peru

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Abstract

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.

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Acknowledgments

All the work presented in this study is part of the activities of the “Proyecto Glaciares,” funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), executed by the University of Zurich and Swiss partner institutions, in close collaboration with CARE Peru. We acknowledge the comments and suggestions from the Editor S. Cuomo and the reviews of P. Bobrowsky and an anonymous reviewer, which helped improving the article. K. Price from CARE Peru provided valuable comments on the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland

    Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Daniel Buis, Claudia Giráldez, Luis Vicuña & Marco Walser

  2. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flueelastrasse 11, 7260, Davos, Switzerland

    Yves Bühler

  3. Instituto de Ciencias de la Naturaleza, Territorio y Energías Renovables (INTE), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru

    Maria Dulce Burga

  4. CARE Peru, Av. Oswaldo Baca J – 12, Urb. Magisterial, Cusco, Peru

    Walter Choquevilca & Felipe Fernandez

  5. Centre de Recherche sur l’Environnement Alpin (CREALP), Sion, Switzerland

    Javier García Hernández

  6. Department of Geography, University of Valencia, Av. Blasco Ibáñez 28, 46010, València, Spain

    Edwin Loarte

  7. Corporación RD SLR, Cusco, Peru

    Paul Masias

  8. Huaraz, Peru

    Cesar Portocarrero

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  1. Holger Frey
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  2. Christian Huggel
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  3. Yves Bühler
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Correspondence to Holger Frey.

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Frey, H., Huggel, C., Bühler, Y. et al. A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa, Peru. Landslides 13, 1493–1507 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0669-z

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