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Regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru—a comparison of different approaches

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Abstract

This study applied existing methods of landslide susceptibility modelling of the mountainous area of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru), which is prone to landslides. In heterogeneous regions as in the Cordillera Blanca, the performance of a physically based approach Stability Index Mapping (SINMAP) was compared to empirical statistical models using logistic regression and a landslide density model. All models were applied to three different digital elevation models (DEMs): ASTER GDEM, SRTM (both 30-m spatial resolution), and TanDEM-X (12-m spatial resolution). Obtained results were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) approach, once for a landslide inventory which extends over the whole study area and once using an inventory of a smaller area. The physically based approach (AUCs between 0.567 and 0.625) performed worse than the statistical models (AUCs from 0.672 to 0.759) over the large area. Additionally, all models received higher performances within the small area. This coincided with differences of the variability of the DEM-derived characteristics (e.g. slope angle and curvature) from the small to the large evaluation area. Using the smaller evaluation area, all models received higher AUC values (0.743–0.799), and the impact of the DEMs was less visible. The analysis of the susceptibility showed that mainly the same slopes are considered as most or least susceptible by all models, but SINMAP is classifying larger areas as unstable or stable. Overall, this study showed that regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling can lead to reasonable results even in regions with scarce model input data, but performances of different DEMs and models need to be evaluated carefully.

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Acknowledgments

For site-specific information about the study area and further help, Cesar Salazar Checa and the whole team of the Glaciology and Water Resources Unit of the National Water Authority in Huaraz, Peru, were a big support.

Funding

This study has been funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), in the framework of the Alcantara No. 5 pilot study “InSAR for landslide hazard assessment in Peru (Contract-No. 4000117655/16/F/MOS)”. Additionally, the article preparation was supported by the long-term conceptual development research organisation RVO: 67985891.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    E. Bueechi, H. Frey & C. Huggel

  2. Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

    J. Klimeš

  3. GAMMA Remote Sensing Research and Consulting AG, Bern, Switzerland

    T. Strozzi

  4. Glaciology and Water Resources Unit (UGRH), National Water Authority (ANA), Huaraz, Peru

    A. Cochachin

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  1. E. Bueechi
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Bueechi, E., Klimeš, J., Frey, H. et al. Regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru—a comparison of different approaches. Landslides 16, 395–407 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1090-1

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