Abstract
A growing body of macroeconomic evidence suggests that volatility is detrimental for economic growth. The channel through which this materializes, however, is less clear. Moreover, substantive evidence based on disaggregate data is scarce. In this paper, we provide empirical support for this relationship using a detailed cross-country firm-level dataset. We also provide additional evidence that institutional obstacles magnify the adverse effect of perceived volatility on firm growth.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abel A. (1993) Optimal investment under uncertainty. The American Economic Review 73: 228–233
Acemoglu D., Johnson S., Robinson J. (2001) The colonial origins of comparative development. The American Economic Review 91: 1369–1401
Acemoglu D., Johnson S., Robinson J., Thaicharoen Y. (2003) Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: Volatility, crises and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 50: 49–123. doi:10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00208-8
Aghion, P., Angeletos, G.-M., Banerjee, A., & Manova, K. (2006). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and productivity-enhancing investment. Mimeo.
Aghion, P., Askenazy, P., Berman, N., Cette, G., & Eymard, L. (2007). Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France. Mimeo.
Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Ranciere, R., & Rogoff, K. (2008). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development. Mimeo.
Aizenman J., Marion N. (1993) Policy uncertainty, persistence and growth. Review of International Economics 1(2): 145–163. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9396.1993.tb00012.x
Aizenman J., Marion N. (1999) Volatility and investment: Interpreting evidence from developing countries. Economica 66: 157–179. doi:10.1111/1468-0335.00163
Alesina A., Devleeschauwer A., Easterly W., Kurlat S., Wacziarg R. (2003) Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth 8: 155–194. doi:10.1023/A:1024471506938
Arellano M. (1993) On the testing of correlated effects with panel data. Journal of Econometrics 59(1–2): 87–97. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(93)90040-C
Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2005a). Finance, firm size, and growth. Policy Research Working Paper, WPS3485, World Bank.
Beck T., Demirguc-Kunt A., Maksimovic V. (2005) Financial and legal constraints to firm growth: Does firm size matter? The Journal of Finance 60(1): 137–177. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00727.x
Caballero R. (1991) On the sign of the investment-uncertainty relationship. The American Economic Review 81: 279–288
Campos N., Nugent J.B. (2003) Aggregate investment and political instability: An econometric. Investigacion Economica 70: 533–549
Chong A., Calderon C. (2003) On the causality and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics and Politics 12(1): 69–81. doi:10.1111/1468-0343.00069
Djankov S., La Porta R., Lopez-de-Silanes F., Shleifer A. (2002) The regulation of entry. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117: 1–37. doi:10.1162/003355302753399436
Djankov S., La Porta R., Lopez-de-Silanes F., Shleifer A. (2003) Courts. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(2): 453–517. doi:10.1162/003355303321675437
Easterly, W. (2005). National policies and economic growth. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth. Elsevier.
Easterly W., Kremer M., Pritchett L., Summers L. (1993) Good policy or good luck? Country growth performance and temporary shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics 32: 459–483. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(93)90026-C
Fatas A., Mihov I. (2003) The case for restricting fiscal policy discretion. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4): 1419–1447. doi:10.1162/003355303322552838
Fatas, A., & Mihov, I. (2006). Policy volatility, institutions, and economic growth. CEPR Working Paper 5388.
Gradstein M. (2002) Rules, stability, and growth. Journal of Development Economics 67: 471–484. doi:10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00196-1
Henisz W. (2004) Political institutions and policy volatility. Economics and Politics 16: 1–27. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0343.2004.00129.x
Hnatkovska V., Loayza N. (2005) Volatility and growth. In: Aizen J., Pinto B. (eds) Managing economic volatility and crises: A practitioner’s guide. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Imbs J. (2007) Growth and volatility. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54: 1848–1862. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.08.001
Johnson S., McMillan J., Woodruff C. (2002) Property rights and finance. The American Economic Review, 92(5): 1335–1356. doi:10.1257/000282802762024539
Knack S., Keefer P. (1995) Institutions and economic performance: Cross-country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics and Politics 7: 207–227. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x
Kormendi R., Meguire P. (1985) Macroeconomic determinants of growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 16: 141–163. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(85)90027-3
La Porta R., Pop-Echeles C., Lopez-de-Silanes F., Shleifer A. (2004) Judicial checks and balances. The Journal of Political Economy 112: 445–470. doi:10.1086/381480
Lang L., Ofek E., Stulz R.M. (1996) Leverage, investment, and firm growth. Journal of Financial Economics 40(1): 3–29. doi:10.1016/0304-405X(95)00842-3
Mauro P. (1995) Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(3): 681–712. doi:10.2307/2946696
Mobarak A. (2005) Democracy, volatility, and economic development. The Review of Economics and Statistics 87(2): 348–361. doi:10.1162/0034653053970302
Persson T., Tabellini G. (2003) The economic effect of constitutions. MIT Press, Cambridge
Quinn D., Woolley J. (1993) Democracy and national economic performance: The preference for stability. American Journal of Political Science 45(3): 634–657. doi:10.2307/2669243
Rajan R., Zingales L. (1998) Financial dependence and growth. The American Economic Review 88: 559–586
Ramey G., Ramey V. (1995) Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth. The American Economic Review 85: 1138–1151
Rodrik D. (1999) Where did all the growth go? External shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses. Journal of Economic Growth 4: 385–412. doi:10.1023/A:1009863208706
Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1997). Natural resource abundance and economic growth. Center for International Development and Harvard Institute for International Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.
Sala-i-Martin, X. (2000). I just ran two million regressions. American economic review papers and proceedings (pp. 245–55).
United Nations Development Program—UNDP. (2007). Human Development Report 2007–2008. New York.
World Business Environment Survey (WBES). http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wbes/.
World Bank. (2007). World Development Indicators.
Zhang F. (2006) Information uncertainty and stock returns. The Journal of Finance 61(1): 105–137. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00831.x
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chong, A., Gradstein, M. Volatility and firm growth. J Econ Growth 14, 1–25 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9037-y
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9037-y