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Better estimates of soil carbon from geographical data: a revised global approach

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Abstract

Soils hold the largest pool of organic carbon (C) on Earth; yet, soil organic carbon (SOC) reservoirs are not well represented in climate change mitigation strategies because our database for ecosystems where human impacts are minimal is still fragmentary. Here, we provide a tool for generating a global baseline of SOC stocks. We used partial least square (PLS) regression and available geographic datasets that describe SOC, climate, organisms, relief, parent material and time. The accuracy of the model was determined by the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of predicted SOC against 100 independent measurements. The best predictors were related to primary productivity, climate, topography, biome classification, and soil type. The largest C stocks for the top 1 m were found in boreal forests (254 ± 14.3 t ha−1) and tundra (310 ± 15.3 t ha−1). Deserts had the lowest C stocks (53.2 ± 6.3 t ha−1) and statistically similar C stocks were found for temperate and Mediterranean forests (142 - 221 t ha−1), tropical and subtropical forests (94 - 143 t ha−1) and grasslands (99-104 t ha−1). Solar radiation, evapotranspiration, and annual mean temperature were negatively correlated with SOC, whereas soil water content was positively correlated with SOC. Our model explained 49% of SOC variability, with RMSD (0.68) representing approximately 14% of observed C stock variance, overestimating extremely low and underestimating extremely high stocks, respectively. Our baseline PLS predictions of SOC stocks can be used for estimating the maximum amount of C that may be sequestered in soils across biomes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank INTA Argentina for supporting our work in Patagonia. Nils Borchard was placed as an integrated expert at the Centre for International Migration and Development (CIM). CIM is a joint venture of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the International Placement Services (ZAV) of the German Federal Employment Agency (BA).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA), (9400) Rio Gallegos, Santa Cruz, Argentina

    Sandra Duarte-Guardia

  2. INTA EEA Santa Cruz, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)-cc332, (9400) Rio Gallegos, Santa Cruz, Argentina

    Pablo L. Peri

  3. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Soil Science and Soil Ecology, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany

    Wulf Amelung

  4. Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432, Ås, Norway

    Douglas Sheil

  5. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan Cifor Rawajaha, Situ Gede, Bogor Barat, Kota Bogor, Jawa Barat, 16115, Indonesia

    Douglas Sheil

  6. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Shawn W. Laffan & David A. Pepper

  7. Agrosphere Institute (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425, Jülich, Germany

    Nils Borchard

  8. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang, Bogor, 16115, Indonesia

    Nils Borchard

  9. Ruhr-University Bochum, Institute of Geography, Soil Science/Soil Ecology, Universitätsstrasse 150, 44801, Bochum, Germany

    Nils Borchard

  10. Plant Production, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9; 00790, Helsinki, Finland

    Nils Borchard

  11. College of Science, Technology and Engineering and Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, James Cook University, PO Box 6811, Cairns, Queensland, Australia

    Michael I. Bird & Wouter Dieleman

  12. Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra ACT, 2617, Australia

    David A. Pepper

  13. Programa Nacional de Conservación de Bosques, Ministerio del Ambiente (National Forest Conservation Program, Ministry of the Environment), Lima, Peru

    Brian Zutta

  14. Grupo de Estudios Ambientales, IMASL, Universidad Nacional de San Luis y CONICET, Ejercito de los Andes 950, D5700BPB, San Luis, Argentina

    Esteban Jobbagy

  15. Environmental Studies Program, Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology & Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA

    Lucas C. R. Silva

  16. Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Stephen P. Bonser & Brenton Ladd

  17. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)/Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Kreder 2805, Esperanza, Santa Fe, Argentina

    Gonzalo Berhongaray

  18. IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, CONICET, Laboratorio de Análisis Regional y Teledetección (LART-FAUBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, San Martin 4453, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Gervasio Piñeiro

  19. Facultad de Agronomia, Universidad de la Republica, Garzon 780, Montevideo, Uruguay

    Gervasio Piñeiro

  20. Escuela de Agroforestería, Universidad Científica del Sur, Panamericana Sur km 19, Lima, Peru

    Maria-Jose Martinez & Brenton Ladd

  21. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Armidale, NSW, Australia

    Annette L. Cowie

  22. School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia

    Annette L. Cowie

Authors
  1. Sandra Duarte-Guardia
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  2. Pablo L. Peri
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  3. Wulf Amelung
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  4. Douglas Sheil
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  5. Shawn W. Laffan
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  6. Nils Borchard
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  7. Michael I. Bird
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  8. Wouter Dieleman
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  9. David A. Pepper
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  10. Brian Zutta
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  11. Esteban Jobbagy
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  12. Lucas C. R. Silva
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  13. Stephen P. Bonser
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  14. Gonzalo Berhongaray
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  15. Gervasio Piñeiro
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  16. Maria-Jose Martinez
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  17. Annette L. Cowie
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  18. Brenton Ladd
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Correspondence to Sandra Duarte-Guardia.

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Duarte-Guardia, S., Peri, P.L., Amelung, W. et al. Better estimates of soil carbon from geographical data: a revised global approach. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 24, 355–372 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9815-y

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