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A temporary contraction in the number of Peruvian births circa 1990: documenting a previously undetected event

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Abstract

In the 1980s, Peru experienced a deep economic crisis and an extremely violent political climate with armed confrontation. As suggested by the literature, it would be reasonable to expect a temporary contraction in the number of births during this period; however, the official population estimates do not show that behaviour. Relying on three different sources (generated independently by diverse organisations in different moments and using varied methods), this article finds consistent evidence suggesting there was a contraction in fertility that has not been previously accounted for. The article also estimates the size of said contraction.

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Fig. 1

Source: see Table 1 and data sources appendix

Fig. 2

Source: see Table 1 and data sources appendix

Fig. 3

Source: see Table 1 and data sources appendix

Fig. 4

Source: see Table 1 and data sources appendix

Fig. 5

Source: see Table 1 and data sources appendix

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Notes

  1. There was a marginal note on this issue in a Peruvian Ministry of Education document published in 2002 (Guadalupe et al. 2002, p. 49).

  2. See Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. Cuadros trimestrales históricos (http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/cuadros-trimestrales-historicos.html). Retrieved on 15 February 2015.

  3. Information retrieved from http://series.inei.gob.pe:8080/sirtod-series/ on 15 March 2015.

  4. Information retrieved from http://censos.inei.gob.pe/censos1993/redatam/ on 15 March 2015.

  5. The distance between estimates and census data is mostly explained by deaths occurring along time. Lack of smoothness in the census data does not allow a robust identification of short-term variations; thus, the gap that appears in the final three years might suggest a contraction in fertility but it is not enough to demonstrate it.

  6. The first World Bank-led Living Standards Measurement Study conducted in Peru (1985) was carried out by the National Statistical Office; however, the next rounds (1990, 1991, and 1994) were commissioned to the Instituto Cuánto. See http://iresearch.worldbank.org/lsms/lsmssurveyFinder.htm (consulted on 22 February 2015).

  7. The Peruvian Education System calls “basic education” to levels 0, 1, 2 and 3 of the International Standard Classification of Education—ISCED, 2011 revision (UNESCO/UIS 2013); that is, pre-school, primary and lower and upper secondary.

  8. Coverage rates by single years of birth computed for 1998 and 1999 (Guadalupe et al. 2002, p. 40) show that 97.5% of children were enrolled in primary school at any given moment in time.

  9. As shown in Table 2, 1984 was the year where political violence translated into the highest number of deaths and forced disappearances for the whole 1980-2000 period. It should be noted that official estimates are flattened around 1983-1984, suggesting the National Statistical Office could detect this particular instance of contraction in fertility probably because they had enough primary data, which is not the case for the period around 1990.

  10. See notes on Table 3 for the detailed procedure used.

  11. Birth records declined by 15% in 1988/1989 and an additional 8% in the following year (Webb & Fernández Baca de Valdez 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997).

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Acknowledgements

The author expresses his gratitude to María Alejandra Zegarra, Katerina Valdivieso, and Hendrik van der Pol for their comments on a draft of this text. He also acknowledges the support of David Sulmont in accessing CVR data, and of Fredy Injoque regarding School Census data. The National Identity Register also granted access to an extract of their records at our request. Rosa Arévalo provided support in locating additional data sources. The first pieces of evidence (coming from the School Censuses) that suggested the phenomenon discussed in this article were discussed with José Rodríguez back in 2000. The Centro de Investigación de la Universidad del Pacífico provided the environment and support needed to complete this article and also supported data requests from the National Identity Register, and funded my time devoted to research activities. There was no other source of funding in addition to the notional costs covered by Universidad del Pacífico.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Social and Political Sciences, Universidad del Pacífico, Av. Salaverry 2020, Jesús María, Lima 11, Peru

    César Guadalupe

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  1. César Guadalupe
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Correspondence to César Guadalupe.

Appendix: Data sources

Appendix: Data sources

  1. 1.

    National Statistical Office:

    1. a.

      1993 Population census results. Retrieved from http://censos.inei.gob.pe/censos1993/redatam/ on 15 March 2015.

    2. b.

      Population estimates 1950–2000. Retrieved from http://series.inei.gob.pe:8080/sirtod-series/ on 15 March 2015.

    3. c.

      2007 Population census results. Retrieved from http://ineidw.inei.gob.pe/ineidw/# on 15 March 2015.

  2. 2.

    Ministry of Education

    School census 1998–2002 and 2004. Data for 2004 available at http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/uee/-/document_library_display/GMv7/view/10481. Data for previous years accessed at the archives of the Educational Statistics Unit at the Ministry of Education. The School Census was not conducted in 2003.

  3. 3.

    Identity Register (Registro Nacional de Identificación y Estado Civil—RENIEC)

    Information on number of unique identification documents–excluding sources of duplication (Documento Nacional de Identidad or Libreta Electoral) issued according to sex, date of birth (month) and district 1950–1995. Special request made by the Universidad del Pacífico aimed at supporting the elaboration of this article. Information was processed excluding Peruvians born abroad.

  4. 4.

    Economic Information

    GDP per capita retrieved from Montevideo-Oxford Latin American Economic History Database, http://moxlad.fcs.edu.uy/en/databaseaccess.html on 15 February 2015. Population figures based on Wilkie, James W., various years. Statistical Abstract of Latin America. Los Angeles, CA: University of California at Los Angeles. GDP figures based on Bértola, L. & Ocampo, J.A. (2010). Desarrollo, Vaivenes y Desigualdad: una Historia Económica de América Latina desde la Independencia. SEGIB, Madrid.

  5. 5.

    Political Violence information

    1. a.

      Dataset detailing fatalities (deaths and forced “disappearances”) compiled by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission–CVR (Perú: Comisión de la Verdad y Reconciliación 2003), retrieved from http://www.cverdad.org.pe/ifinal/index.php on 15 January 2015.

    2. b.

      Dataset detailing political violence events for the period 1980–2000 compiled by the CVR based on DESCO (1989) and the weekly bulletin on political events produced by the same organisation for the whole period (DESCO n.d.). This information was accessed at the CVR archives. DESCO compiled information reported by newspapers, and this information included a range of ‘actions’ including attacks, propaganda, armed strikes, and sabotage carried out by organisations attacking the democratic order, as well as raids or other actions by law enforcement agencies.

  6. 6.

    Registered births for Lima and Callao 1983–1995 were retrieved from the Statistical Yearbook produced by Instituto Cuánto (Webb & Fernández Baca de Valdez 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997).

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Guadalupe, C. A temporary contraction in the number of Peruvian births circa 1990: documenting a previously undetected event. J Pop Research 34, 233–252 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-017-9184-5

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