Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis
Introduction
The Nigerien economy depends strongly on its agricultural sector, a sector that occupies more than 80 percent of the workforce and contributes to more than 40 percent of GDP. However, this agriculture is handicapped by its low productivity and its exposition to a number of risks. Among the latter, the adverse climatic conditions are often considered to be the most severe (World Bank, 2013). Over the last few decades, the Sahel region has indeed been hit by rising temperatures, reduction in average rainfall and higher climate variability reflected, in particular, in more frequent major droughts (Druyan, 2011; IPCC, 2013). Within this context, the living conditions of the fast-growing population are particularly precarious, especially in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income but also the main source of food. In 2010, 48,2% of Nigerien households were poors and rural areas contributed 90% to total poverty with a poverty rate of 54.6%; 48.1% suffered chronic malnutrition and more than 20% were affected by lack of food security and identified as being in a severely vulnerable situation (Herderschee et al., 2014). Noting the apparent consensus in agro-climate literature that Niger's future weather conditions could deteriorate and be characterized by both a drier climate and a higher frequency of severe droughts (Sylla et al., 2010, Mohino et al., 2011, Roudier et al., 2011; IPCC, 2013; Sultan 2013; Niang, 2014), the present study seeks to assess the risk that these possible deteriorations might entail for the Niger's economy and the welfare of its population. We draw here on several ways on the studies attempting to assess developing countries’ vulnerability to possible changes in weather conditions.
First, regarding the modelling framework, we chose to build a Dynamic Recursive Computable General Equilibrium (DRCGE) model for the Nigerien economy. This framework seems indeed better suited to an economy-wide analysis of the potential effects of future agro-climatic shocks than others approaches in the literature (relying on Ricardian or partial equilibrium analysis). On the one hand, because the general equilibrium logic does not restrict the effects of the shocks to agriculture alone but also captures explicitly all the linkages between prices, income, supply and demand in the whole economy. On the other hand, because the use of a dynamic specification enables to generate time paths of the evolutions of the country's economic variables under different hypotheses for potential shocks over a given period. In the recent economic literature CGE studies on developing counties climate's vulnerability have known a rapid growth, either in a global or national framework (see for instance Gebreegziabher et al., 2016, for a review). However, to our knowledge, such analysis has never been conducted for Niger. Our DRCGE model involves fairly standard general equilibrium assumptions for low income countries (Decaluwé et al., 2013). But, unlike the majority of other CGE studies, we also chose to consider some specific features of the Nigerien economy, particularly its dual nature, both in rural areas and urban areas (Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). Moreover, using a top-down approach, we chose to link this model to a dynamic microsimulation (DMS) model in order to also assess the potential social outcomes of the future adverse climatic conditions at the micro level.
Second, regarding the nature of the climatic shocks simulated with the models, we chose here to use a three-pronged approach in order to isolate the respective potential effects of climate change and climate variability. In a first step, as with a majority of CGE studies (see for instance, Juana et al., 2008; Reid et al., 2008; Bezabih et al., 2011; Hertel et al., 2010; Bosello et al., 2013; Calzadilla et al., 2013; Gebreegziabher et al., 2016), we adopt a deterministic approach of climate change by considering solely the potential effects of long-run mean changes in agriculture (mainly crop yields reductions). We thus define a first group of agro-climatic scenarios over the next 25 years for Niger, on the basis of the main forecasts of average yield evolutions found in the agro-climate literature. However, limiting the agro-climatic shocks to average changes clearly underestimates their potential effects. In the literature, whenever possible, other CGE studies thus try to include some climate variability features using stochastic or probabilistic scenarios (see for instance, Thurlow et al., 2009; Yu et al., 2010; Arndt et al., 2011; Arndt et al., 2012; Sassi and Cardaci, 2013; Arndt et al., 2015; Arndt and Thurlow, 2015). Others, though in limited number, focus even more on future changes in extreme events and the disaster risks that they could represent for a country (see for instance World Bank, 2008; Pauw et al., 2011; Al-Riffai et al., 2012 or Zhong et al., 2014). In a second step, we therefore chose to focus on the risk of a potential future greater climate variability by defining a second group of agro-climatic scenarios including more frequent and more intense drought events for the next 25 years in Niger. These scenarios rely here on stochastic annual weather sequences including drought events with sizeable one-off impacts on yields, rainfed land depreciation or livestock capital. Finally, in a last step, we combine previous analyses in a range of scenarios including both climate change and climate variability features.
Third, some CGE studies (see for instance, Eboli et al., 2010; World Bank, 2010; Robinson et al., 2012; Bosello et al., 2013; Bandara and Cai, 2014; Calzadilla et al., 2014; Chalise and Naranpanawa, 2016) explore also different options for coping with future climate conditions focusing on either autonomous price-driven decisions of agents (mainly regarding primary factors-use change) or adaptation strategies that governments may promote. We thus chose to also asses the opportunity of such coping strategies for Niger. For that purpose, we selected some planned strategies specifically designed to boost agricultural productivity with a focus on improvements in the rural road network, expansions of irrigation capacity or changes in farm management practices.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the current vulnerability of Nigerien agriculture to climate conditions and the hypotheses we selected for defining the different future agro-climatic scenarios. Section 3 describes the main features of our economic models and Section 4 presents the results of the different simulations. Finally, Section 5 explores the net impact of the coping strategies we selected in order to determine if they are capable of counterbalancing the effects of the changing weather conditions.
Section snippets
Niger's current vulnerability to adverse climatic conditions
Despite the major efforts made since the 1970s by the Nigerien government to develop agriculture, this sector, which is essentially rainfed subsistence farming, is characterised by structural fragility. The decline in natural resources and in soil fertility, the traditional nature of systems of production, the lack of rural infrastructures, the weakness of state institutions or rural organizations, the low level of incomes which limit farmers’ ability to invest, etc., are all handicaps which
Key model features
Our DRCGE model for Niger is adapted from the PEP-1-t Standard Model (Decaluwé et al., 2013). It features four groups of households (Subsistence farmers, Other agricultural workers in export agriculture, Urban formal and Urban informal), one government agent, one firm agent, twelve agricultural activities (irrigated or rainfed), seven industrial activities and five service activities (the relevant equations and variables are presented in Supplementary Material).
Its within-period specification
Potential socio-economic impacts of climate change scenarios
Selected results for the three long-term climate change scenarios are given in Table 3 (more detailed results are given in the supplementary material). They are consistent with the findings of the other CGE studies that assess (even in different frameworks) the impacts of a long-run crop yields reductions for other developing countries (see for instance Bosello et al., 2013; Calzadilla et al., 2013; Gebreegziabher et al., 2016 for recent studies in Africa). As expected, the economic and social
Investigating some strategies to cope with new climate conditions
The final step of our analysis is to investigate whether Niger migth have some room for manœuvre for coping strategies. Over the years, a number of adaptation options have been identified for developing countries (see for instance IPCC, 2014, chap.14) and some CGE studies have tried to include them in their analyse (for instance, Bandara and Cai, 2014; Calzadilla et al., 2014 or Chalise and Naranpanawa, 2016). In Niger, many planned adaptation options have already been defined by Nigerien
Conclusion
This study uses a microsimulated DRCGE model to explore the potential economic and social impacts over a 25 year period of various new climate conditions scenarios for Niger. First, it shows how a long term fall in the main crop yields could reduce the country's economic growth and considerably degrade its poverty and food insecurity indicators. Secondly, it also shows how these negative impacts could be aggravated by a higher frequency of extreme drought events. Third, it shows that there is
References (71)
- et al.
The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia
Econ. Anal. Policy
(2014) - et al.
Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-saharan Africa
Ecol. Econ.
(2013) - et al.
Climate change and agriculture: impacts and adaptation options in South Africa
Water Resour. Econ.
(2014) - et al.
Climate change adaptation in agriculture: a computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal
Land Use Policy
(2016) - et al.
The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Glob. Environ. Change
(2010) - et al.
A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change
Glob. Planet. Change
(2008) - et al.
On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change
Agric. For. Meteorol.
(2010) - et al.
The impact of future climate change on west african crop yields: what does the recent literature say?
Glob. Environ. Change
(2011) - et al.
Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model’
Food Policy
(2013) - et al.
A dual-dual CGE model of an archetype African economy: trade reform, migration and poverty
J. Policy Model.
(2003)
What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach
Food Policy
Droughts in Syria: an assessment of impacts and options for improving the resilience of the Poor
Q. J. Int. Agric.
Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050
Clim. Change
Climate change and economic growth prospects for malawi: an uncertainty approach
J. Afr. Econ.
Impact of climate change on agricultural production in the sahel - Part 1. Methodological approach and case study for millet in Niger
Clim. Change
Climate change risksin Sahelian Africa
Reg. Environ. Change
Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy
Clim. Policy
Changes in the diversity and geographic distribution of cultivated millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.) and Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) Varieties in Niger between 1976 and 2003
Genet. Resour. Crop Evol.
‘Potential impacts of a green revolution in Africa-the case of Ghana’
J. Int. Dev.
Linking a microsimulation model to a dynamic CGE model: climate change mitigation policies and income distribution in Australia
Int. J. Microsimulation
Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought
J. Hydrometeorol.
Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts
Rev. Econ. Stat.
Infrastructure and economic development in sub-saharan Africa
J. Afr. Econ.
Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa
Dev. South. Afr.
PEP-1-t Standard Model: single-country, Recursive Dynamic Version, Politique économique et Pauvreté/Poverty and Economic Policy Network
Studies of 21st- century precipitation trends over West Africa
Int. J. Climatol.
Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model
Environ. Dev. Econ.
The causes, effects and challenges of sahelian droughts: a critical review
Reg. Environ. Change
Cited by (24)
Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia
2022, Economic ModellingCitation Excerpt :As indicated in the Introduction, the current study emphasizes the CGE approach. This modeling framework indeed seems more suitable for an ex-post analysis, as it explicitly captures the multiple links between prices, income, supply, and demand in the entire economy (Montaud et al., 2017). Conventionally, the vast majority of the CGE studies adopt a deterministic approach to study conditions related to long-term climate change, particularly in agricultural sectors (e.g., Andersen et al., 2014; Bezabih et al., 2011; Calzadilla et al., 2013; Gebreegziabher et al., 2016; Nelson et al., 2010).
A review of model-based scenario analysis of poverty for informing sustainability
2022, Environmental Science and PolicyThe impact of climate change on the risk factors for tuberculosis: A systematic review
2022, Environmental ResearchCitation Excerpt :Climate change is expected to act as a poverty multiplier, with the greatest impact on the already poor and marginalised populations (Hallegatte et al., 2016; McGuigan et al., 2002). Our studies support this claim, demonstrating that climate change may increase income inequality and exacerbate poverty (Burzyński et al., 2021; Cororaton et al., 2018; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Montaud et al., 2017; Urama et al., 2019). This may be because people in poverty spend a greater proportion of their income on food, struggle to access basic infrastructure, and rely on agricultural income (Montaud et al., 2017).
“Booster” or “obstacle”: Can coal capacity cut policies moderate the resource curse effect? Evidence from Shanxi (China)
2022, Resources PolicyCitation Excerpt :In particular, the DCGE model introduces a dynamic economic mechanism integrated into the static CGE model (Zhang et al., 2021). The between-period specification of the DCGE model is recursive (Montaud et al., 2017), and thus initial policy effects will continue to be transferred to the future period, reflecting the policy persistence shocks on economy and the environment (Duarte et al., 2018). This study attempts to comprehensively investigate the long-term effects of coal capacity cut policies on economic and environmental indicators, and expects to obtain a more realistic response of policy simulation based on a more scientific theoretical basis.
A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data
2020, Economic ModellingCitation Excerpt :This shows that in many countries, there is still room to increase yield productivity by investing in technology in order to reverse such decreasing trends. Montaud et al. (2017) found that in Niger, a drop in crop yields of the main crops would result in a reduction in economic growth and would increase poverty and food insecurity levels. Series with decreasing trends are present in all areas, with their share ranging from 9.5% of the total in North America and Central Asia to 24.9% in Oceania (Fig. 5).6
Climate change in developing nations of the world
2020, Applications of Heat, Mass and Fluid Boundary Layers