Original article
Trade-off between the effects of embolic versus bleeding events on mortality in elderly patients with atrial fibrillationBalance entre el efecto de los eventos embólicos frente a los hemorrágicos en la mortalidad de los pacientes ancianos con fibrilación auricular

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rec.2021.02.003Get rights and content

Abstract

Introduction and objectives

Clinical decision-making on anticoagulation in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) requires clinicians to consider not only the incidence of embolic and bleeding events, but also the risk of death following these adverse events. We aimed to analyze the trade-off between embolic and bleeding events with respect to mortality in elderly patients with AF.

Methods

The study cohort comprised all patients aged ≥ 75 years from a Spanish health area diagnosed with AF between 2014 and 2017 (n = 9365). The risk of death was investigated using Cox proportional hazards models, including embolic and bleeding events as time-dependent binary indicators.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, both embolic and bleeding events were associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR, 2.39; 95%CI, 2.12-2.69; and adjusted HR, 1.79; 95%CI, 1.64-1.96, respectively). The relative risk of death was 33% higher following an embolism than following a bleeding event (rRR, 1.33; 95%CI, 1.15-1.55), although for transient ischemic attack the risk was lower than for bleeding (rRR, 0.79; 95%CI, 0.63-0.99). The risk of death associated with intracranial hemorrhage was similar to that of major embolisms (RR, 1.00; 95%CI, 0.75-1.29).

Conclusions

In elderly AF patients, embolic events appeared to be associated with a higher risk of mortality than extracranial bleeding, except for transient ischemic attacks, which have a better prognosis. For ICH, the mortality risk was similar to that of major embolism.

Resumen

Introducción y objetivos

La toma de decisiones clínicas sobre la anticoagulación de pacientes ancianos con fibrilación auricular (FA) requiere que se considere no solo la incidencia de eventos embólicos y hemorrágicos, sino también el riesgo de muerte tras esos efectos adversos. Nuestro objetivo es analizar el balance con respecto a la mortalidad entre los eventos embólicos y hemorrágicos en pacientes ancianos con FA.

Métodos

Se analizó a todos los pacientes de 75 o más años de un área de salud española diagnosticados de FA entre 2014 y 2017 (n = 9.365). El riesgo de muerte se estimó utilizando modelos de Cox que incluyeron los episodios embólicos y hemorrágicos como variables dependientes del tiempo.

Resultados

Durante una mediana de seguimiento de 4,0 años, los eventos se asociaron con mayor mortalidad, tanto los embólicos (HR = 2,39; IC95%, 2,12-2,69) como los hemorrágicos (HR = 1,79; IC95%, 1,64-1,96). El riesgo de muerte fue un 33% mayor después de una embolia que después de una hemorragia (rRR = 1,33; IC95%, 1,15-1,55), aunque con accidente isquémico transitorio el riesgo fue menor que con hemorragia (rRR = 0,79; IC95%, 0,63-0,99). La mortalidad tras una hemorragia intracraneal fue similar que tras una embolia mayor (RR = 1,00; IC95%, 0,75-1,29).

Conclusiones

En los pacientes de edad avanzada con FA, los eventos embólicos parecen estar asociados con una mayor mortalidad que las hemorragias extracraneales, salvo los accidentes isquémicos transitorios. Con hemorragia intracraneal, el riesgo de muerte es similar al de una embolia mayor.

Section snippets

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces the frequency of embolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, this benefit is counterbalanced by an increase in bleeding. Bleeding was historically considered an acceptable price to pay for OAC therapy; however, it has recently been shown to independently impact mortality.1

Advancing age affects multiple facets of the risk-benefit assessment of anticoagulation for AF patients. Consensus guidelines categorize all patients aged 75 years and

Study population

The study cohort comprised all patients aged ≥ 75 years from the health area of Vigo (Galicia, Spain) diagnosed with AF between January 2014 and December 2017 (CardioCHUVI-AF_75 registry; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04364516). Electronic medical records were meticulously reviewed to confirm the diagnosis of AF and collect data on baseline clinical variables and therapeutic strategy. In all patients, the diagnosis of AF was confirmed only when it was based on an electrocardiogram. The

RESULTS

We studied 9365 patients aged ≥ 75 years with a confirmed diagnosis of AF. A total of 7557 patients were anticoagulated (80.7%). Of them, 6360 were anticoagulated with vitamin K antagonists (84.2%), 1070 with direct oral anticoagulants (14.1%) and 127 with heparin (1.7%). For those patients treated with vitamin K antagonists, the percentage of international normalized ratio in the therapeutic range (between 2 and 3) was 45.2%. For those patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants, 30.2% of

DICUSSION

To our knowledge, this is the first real-world observational study to compare the prognostic impact on mortality of embolism and bleeding in a cohort of elderly AF patients. Our principal findings are as follows: a) both bleeding and embolic events are associated with an increased risk of death; b) embolic events had higher prognostic value for death than bleeding events, both for total and major episodes, although this value depended on the type of embolism and bleeding; c) the mortality rate

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients with AF, both embolic and bleeding events significantly impacted mortality within a similar time framework. Embolic events appeared to be associated with a higher risk of mortality than extracranial bleeding, except for TIAs, which have a better prognosis. For ICH, the subsequent risk of death was similar to that of major embolism. These findings may help clinicians to interpret the risk-benefit profile of anticoagulant drugs.

FUNDING

Daiichi Sankyo, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Pfizer, have provided unconditional financial support for this study.

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTIONS

S. Raposeiras-Roubín: study design, data analysis, manuscript writing, and article submission. E. Abu-Assi: study design, data analysis and critical review of the article. M. Cespón Fernández: data collection and critical review of the article. S. Blanco Prieto: data collection and critical review of the article. C. Barreiro Pardal: data collection and critical review of the article. P. Domínguez-Erquicia: data collection and critical review of the article. M. Melendo Viu: data collection and

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

E. Abu-Assi is associate editor of Rev Esp Cardiol. The journal's editorial procedure to ensure impartial handling of the manuscript has been followed.

WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC?

  • -

    Both embolic events and bleeding events are associated with a worse prognosis in patients with atrial fibrillation. The impact on mortality has been confirmed both in the short- and long-term, especially for embolic events. However, which events have more impact on the mortality: embolisms or hemorrhages?

WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?

  • -

    This is the first study to compare

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