Changes in Exchange Rates as Economic Disturbances

Abstract

Changes in exchange rates are uncertain events. Most changes in exchange rates are associated with differential movements in national price levels — the price levels in the countries whose currencies are devalued or depreciate have risen more rapidly than the U.S. price level and, to a lesser extent, the countries whose currencies were revalued or appreciated have had less rapid inflation. Even then, the timing of such changes cannot be foretold with accuracy. Moreover, not all changes in exchange rates, especially on a month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter basis, reflect changes in relative prices. Since most industrial countries ceased pegging their currencies in early 1973, the exchange rate between the mark price of the U.S. dollar has fluctuated sharply, even though the U.S. and German price levels have increased at almost the same rate.