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Analysis of International Yield Modelling Approaches to Ensure Adaptation Under Different Climate Futures and Spatiotemporal Scales for Semiarid Developing Countries

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Handbook of Climate Change Management

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Abstract

Human well-being and most economic activities depend on water availability, which has basically two dimensions: water quantity and with an increasing urgency – water quality. The provision of sufficient water at an acceptable level of quality is a crucial task requiring different approaches in Water Resource Management (WRM). Yield modelling is one of the most widely used approaches to highlight deficits or surpluses in a predefined area. It is as an important component of water resource planning that provides details on water availability for storage planning and operations as well as WRM. Modelling is heavily dependent on biophysical hydrological processes including, precipitation, infiltration and evapotranspiration, and managerial aspects including demand management. This chapter suggests that effective yield modelling needs to incorporate climate change and consider different climate futures at more than one spatiotemporal scale to minimize unreliable and uncertain water availability assessments, and increase assurance of supply planning. This is done through three key themes, namely, perception versus modelling narratives; transformative adaptation management; and the proposal of short, medium, and long-term adaptation strategies. Case countries were identified as water-scarce countries with semiarid environments and the world’s largest emerging economies from the Group of 20, namely, Argentina, India, Mexico, and South Africa. These countries highlight that differences in prioritization of climate, technical expertise, financial capability, administrative compliance in governance, and uncertainty in yield modelling lead to water insecurity, put economic activity under severe threat of water scarcity and lead to inadequate infrastructure development. The latter potentially threatens development as a whole and the loss of significant state budgets due to incorrect yield projections.

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  1. Centre for Water Resources Research, University of Kwazulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

    Kudzanai Rosebud Gwena & Sabine Stuart-Hill

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  1. Kudzanai Rosebud Gwena
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  1. FTZ-ALS, HAW Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

  2. School of Social Sciences, CHC Higher Education, Carindale, Australia

    Johannes Luetz

  3. Center for Food Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Desalegn Ayal

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Gwena, K.R., Stuart-Hill, S. (2021). Analysis of International Yield Modelling Approaches to Ensure Adaptation Under Different Climate Futures and Spatiotemporal Scales for Semiarid Developing Countries. In: Leal Filho, W., Luetz, J., Ayal, D. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22759-3_236-1

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