Abstract
The aim of the following paper is proposed a mechanism of analysis useful to verify the capacity of the Vigier and Terceño (2008) diagnostic fuzzy model to predict diseases. The model is enriched by the inclusion of aggregation operators because this allows reducing the detected map of causes or diseases in strategic areas of continuous monitoring. And at the same time this causes can be disaggregated once some alert indicator is identified. The capacity of explanation and prediction of estimated diseases are measured through this mechanism; and also are detected the monitoring key areas that warning insolvency situations. In this approach are introduced aggregation operators of causes of business failure, and a goodness measure using approximate solutions. This index of goodness allows testing the degree of fit of the predictions of the model. Also, as an example, the empirical estimation and the verification of the improvement proposal to a set of small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) of the construction sector are presented.
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Notes
- 1.
This model is chosen because it has a comprehensive analysis of causes and symptoms over the pioneers models of Aluja Gil (1990) and Gil Lafuente (1996), and the recent proposals of Mărăcine and Delcea (2009), Scarlat et al. (2010), among others. These recents approaches taken as reference Vigier and Terceño model, derive the matrix of causes and symptoms by difference with the performance matrix, and therefore introduce a greater degree of subjectivity and a turn on in favor of experts point of views.
- 2.
- 3.
- 4.
If only the firms constituted in formal societies are considered, as they are the only ones required to submit economic- financial statements, the percentage of representation is around 30 %.
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Appendices
Appendix A
Grouped membership matrix of causes (P*Max)
Areas | Learning and growth | Business process | Customers perspective | Finance | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
E1 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
E2 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.67 |
E3 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
E4 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
E5 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
E6 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
E7 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.80 |
E8 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.80 |
E9 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
E10 | 1.00 | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
E11 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
E12 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 1.00 |
E13 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
E14 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
E15 | 0.8 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.48 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 1.00 |
Grouped membership matrix of causes (P*Min)
Areas | Learning and growth | Business process | Customers perspective | Finance | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
E1 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
E2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
E4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E5 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
E6 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.27 |
E7 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.27 |
E8 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.27 |
E9 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E10 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E11 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E12 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E13 | 0.17 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E14 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
E15 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
Grouped membership matrix of causes (P*Mean)
Areas | Learning and growth | Business process | Customers perspective | Finance | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
E1 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.29 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
E2 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.26 | 0.47 |
E3 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
E4 | 0.45 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.58 |
E5 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
E6 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 0.45 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.52 |
E7 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
E8 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.85 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
E9 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 0.34 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
E10 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.59 |
E11 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.56 |
E12 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
E13 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
E14 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
E15 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.66 | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
Appendix B
Estimated membership matrix of diseases (P′Max)
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E1 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
E2 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
E3 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
E4 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
E5 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.92 |
E6 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
E7 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
E8 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
E9 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
E10 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
E11 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
E12 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
E13 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
E14 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.31 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
E15 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
Estimated membership matrix of diseases (P′Min)
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
E4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E5 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E6 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E7 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E8 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E9 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E10 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E11 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E12 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E13 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E14 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
E15 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
Estimated membership matrix of diseases (P′Mean)
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E1 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E2 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E3 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.35 | 0.49 |
E4 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E5 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E6 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E7 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E8 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 0.35 | 0.49 |
E9 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E10 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E11 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.35 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E12 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
E13 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
E14 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
E15 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 0.35 | 0.49 |
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Scherger, V., Vigier, H.P., Terceño-Gómez, A., Barberà-Mariné, M.G. (2015). Goodness of Aggregation Operators in a Diagnostic Fuzzy Model of Business Failure. In: Gil-Aluja, J., Terceño-Gómez, A., Ferrer-Comalat, J., Merigó-Lindahl, J., Linares-Mustarós, S. (eds) Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 377. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19704-3_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19704-3_12
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