Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies pp 53–69Cite as

POPACTS: Simplified Projection Software for State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections

  • Chapter

Part of the book series: Applied Demography Series ((ADS,volume 7))

Abstract

Multi-regional projection models are amongst the most conceptually sophisticated and highly-regarded models for producing subnational population projections. But they can present a number of challenges in real-world applications, especially when the number of regions is large and regional populations are small. Data requirements become huge, demographic patterns become ‘noisy’ and unstable, considerable data estimation and smoothing is necessary, and a large number of assumptions have to be formulated. All of this consumes substantial amounts of money and staff resources. This chapter describes projection software which attempts to simplify and lower the costs of the projections process without compromising on the principal strengths of the multi-regional approach. POPACTS (POpulation Projections for rural Areas, Cities and Towns of a State) is new Excel/VBA software which enables projections to be produced for a State, up to 15 large sub-State regions and a flexible number of local areas. Local area projections can either be demography-led or dwelling-led. The projections process is simplified by using five year age groups, reducing the fully multi-regional model by applying multi-bi-regional structures, and adjusting directional migration probabilities via scaling to assumed net migration totals. In addition, users are able to select pre-loaded options for projection assumptions, or set their own, and Excel’s capacity for visualisation is applied to facilitate the review of projection outputs for plausibility. Illustrative projections for New South Wales and its local government areas are presented.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Department of Planning & Environment (DPE), NSW. (2014a). Population, household and dwelling projections. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx. Accessed on 6 July 2014.

  • Department of Planning & Environment (DPE), NSW. (2014b). Population, household and dwelling projections: Resources. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-au/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections/resources.aspx. Accessed on 6 July 2014.

  • Foss, W. (2002). Small area population forecasting. The Appraisal Journal, 70(2), 163–172.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hajnal, J. (1955). The prospects for population forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 50(270), 309–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Isserman, A. M. (1993). The right people, the right rates: Making population estimates and forecasts with an interregional cohort-component model. Journal of the American Planning Association, 59(1), 45–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. H. (1977). The measurement of migration, from census data and other sources. Environment and Planning A, 9(3), 247–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. H. (1981). Accounts based models for multiregional population analysis: Methods, program and users’ manual (Working paper 295/Computer manual 13). School of Geography at the University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. H. (1985). Does it really matter which migration data you use in a population model? In P. E. White & G. A. van der Knapp (Eds.), Contemporary research on migration (pp. 55–78). Norwich: Geobooks.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1986). Choices in the construction of regional population projections. In R. Woods & P. Rees (Eds.), Population structures and models: Developments in spatial demography (pp. 126–159). London: Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1994). Key issues in subnational projection models (Working paper 94/8). School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (2002). New models for projecting UK populations by ethnic group at national and subnational scales. In J. Haskey (Ed.), Population projections by ethnic group: A feasibility study (pp. 27–42). London: The Stationery Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P., & Willekens, F. (1986). Data and accounts. In A. Rogers & F. J. Willekens (Eds.), Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study (pp. 19–58). Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. H., & Wilson, A. G. (1977). Spatial population analysis. London: Edward Arnold.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1976). Shrinking large-scale population projection models by aggregation and decomposition. Environment and Planning A, 8(5), 515–541.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1990). Requiem for the net migrant. Geographical Analysis, 22(4), 283–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shryock, H. S., Siegel, J. S., & Associates. (1980). The methods and materials of demography, Volume 2. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. (2001). State and local population projections. New York: Kluwer.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations. (1992). Preparing migration data for subnational population projections. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Imhoff, E., van der Gaag, N., van Wissen, L., & Rees, P. (1997). The selection of internal migration models for European regions. International Journal of Population Geography, 3(2), 137–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willekens, F. (2008). Models of migration: Observations and judgements. In J. Raymer & F. Willekens (Eds.), International migration in Europe: Data, models and estimates (pp. 117–147). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T. (2011). Modelling with NEWDSS: Producing state, regional and local area population projections for New South Wales. In J. Stillwell & M. Clarke (Eds.), Population dynamics and projection methods: Essays in Honour of Philip Rees. Dordrecht: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T. (2014). Mathematical description of the population projection models in POPACTS (Technical Paper). Brisbane: Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T. (2015). The demographic constraints on future population growth in regional Australia. Australian Geographer, 46(1), 91–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T., & Bell, M. (2004). Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections. Journal of Population Research, 21(2), 127–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, 0909, Australia

    Tom Wilson

Authors
  1. Tom Wilson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tom Wilson .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia

    Tom Wilson

  2. Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Elin Charles-Edwards

  3. Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Martin Bell

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Wilson, T. (2016). POPACTS: Simplified Projection Software for State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections. In: Wilson, T., Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M. (eds) Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies. Applied Demography Series, vol 7. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22135-9_4

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22135-9_4

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-22134-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-22135-9

  • eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation