Skip to main content

Project Cost Overrun Simulation in Software Product Line Development

  • Conference paper
Product-Focused Software Process Improvement (PROFES 2007)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNPSE,volume 4589))

Abstract

The cost of a Software Product Line (SPL) development project sometimes exceeds the initially planned cost, because of requirements volatility and poor quality. In this paper, we propose a cost overrun simulation model for time-boxed SPL development. The model is an enhancement of a previous model, specifically now including: consideration of requirements volatility, consideration of unplanned work for defect correction during product projects, and nominal project cost overrun estimation. The model has been validated through stochastic simulations with fictional SPL project data, by comparing generated unplanned work effort to actual change effort, and by sensitivity analysis. The result shows that the proposed model has reasonable validity to estimate nominal project cost overruns and its variability. Analysis indicates that poor management of requirements and quality will almost double estimation error, for the studied simulation settings.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Clements, P., Northrop, L.M.: Software Product Lines: Practices and Patterns. Addison-Wesley, MA (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Schmid, K., Biffl, S.: Systematic management of software product lines. Softw. Process Improve. Pract. 10, 61–76 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Genuchten, M.v.: Why is software late? an empirical study of reasons for delay in software development. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 17 (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Subramanian, G.H., Breslawski, S.: An empirical analysis of software effort estimate alterations. J. Systems and Software 31, 135–141 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Nurmuliani, N., Zowghi, D., Fowell, S.: Analysis of requirements volatility during software development life cycle. In: Proc. 2004 Australian Softw. Eng. Conf. (ASWEC 2004) (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Dijkstra, E.: Notes on structured programming. In: Dahl, O.J., Dijkstra, E., Hoare, C.A.R. (eds.) Structured Programming, Academic Press, London (1972)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Nonaka, M., Zhu, L., Babar, M.A., Staples, M.: Project delay variability simulation in software product line development. In: Proc. Intl. Conf. Software Process (ISCP) (to appear)

    Google Scholar 

  8. IEEE: Ieee std. 1219-1998, ieee standard for software maintenance (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Jørgensen, M., Moløkken, K.: Reasons for software effort estimation error: Impact of respondent role. information collection approach, and data analysis method. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 30, 993–1007 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Jørgensen, M.: Realism in assessment of effort estimation uncertainty: It matters how you ask. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 2004, 209–217 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Procaccino, J.D., Verner, J.M.: Software project managers and project success: An exploratory study. J. Systems and Software 79, 1541–1551 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Boehm, B.W., Abts, C., Brown, A.W., Chulani, S., Clark, B.K., Horowitz, E., Madachy, R., Reifer, D., Steece, B.: Software Cost Estimation with COCOMO II. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Boehm, B.W., Brown, A.W., Madachy, R., Yang, Y.: A software product line life cycle cost estimation model. In: Proc, Intl. Symp. Empirical Softw. Eng. (ISESE 2004), pp. 156–164 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Chen, Y., Gannod, G.C., Collofello, J.S.: A software product line process simulator. Softw. Process Improve. Pract. 11, 385–409 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Yang, D., Wan, Y., Tang, Z., Wu, S., He, M., Li, M.: Cocomo-u: An extension of cocomo ii for cost estimation with uncertainty. In: Wang, Q., Pfahl, D., Raffo, D.M., Wernick, P. (eds.) Software Process Change. LNCS, vol. 3966, pp. 132–141. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  16. Bosch, J.: Maturity and evolution in software product lines: Approaches, artefacts and organization. In: Proc. 2nd Intl. Conf. Softw. Product Lines 2002, pp. 257–271 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Epping, A., Lott, C.M.: Does software design complexity affect maintenance effort? In: Proc. 19th Softw. Eng. Workshop. 1994, pp. 297–313 (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Bocco, M.G., Moody, D.L., Piattini, M.: Assessing the capability of internal metrics as early indicators of maintenance effort through experimentation. J. Software Maintenance and Evolution 17, 225–246 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Ramanujan, S., Scamell, R.W., Shah, J.R.: An experimental investigation of the impact of individual, program, and organizational characteristics on software maintenance effort. J. Systems and Software 54, 137–157 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Kan, S.H., Dull, S.D., Amundson, D.N., Lindner, R.J., Hedger, R.J.: As/400 software quality management. IBM Systems Journal 33, 62–88 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Remus, H.: Integrated software validation in the view of inspections / reviews. In: Proc. Symposium on Softw. Validation, pp. 57–64. Elsevier, North-Holland (1983)

    Google Scholar 

  22. SEL: Sel, (software engineering laboratory) data (1997), http://www.cebase.org

  23. Musa, J.D.: Software Reliability Engineering. Osborne/McGraw-Hill (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Defamie, M., Jacobs, P., Thollembeck, J.: Software reliability: assumptions, realities and data. In: Proc. 1999 Intl. Conf. Softw. Maintenance (ICSM 1999), pp. 337–345 (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Miyazaki, Y., Takanou, A., Nozaki, H., Nakagawa, N., Okada, K.: Method to estimate parameter values in software prediction models. Inf. Softw. Technol. 33, 239–243 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Moløkken, K., Jørgensen, M.: A comparison of software project overruns–flexible versus sequential development models. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 31, 754–766 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Sargent, R.G.: Validation and verification of simulation models. In: Proc. 31st Conf. Winter Simulation, pp. 39–48 (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Donzelli, P.: A decision support system for software project management. IEEE Software 23, 67–75 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Abdel-Hamid, T., Madnick, S.: Software Project Dynamics- An Integrated Approach. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Calavaro, G.F., Basili, V.R., Iazeolla, G.: Simulation modeling of software development process. In: Proc. 7th European Simulation Symposium. Soc. for Computer Simulation (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Antoniol, G., Cimitile, A., Lucca, G.A., Penta, M.: Assessing staffing needs for a software maintenance project through queuing simulation. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 30, 43–58 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Martin, R., Raffo, D.: Application of a hybrid process simulation model to a software development project. J. Systems and Software 59, 237–246 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Kellner, M.I., Madachy, R.J., Raffo, D.M.: Software process simulation modeling: Why? what? how? J. Systems and Software 46, 113–122 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Cohen, S.: Predicting when product line investment pays. Technical Report Techinical Report CMU/SEI-2003-TN-017, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  35. Böckle, G., Clements, P., McGregor, J.D., Muthig, D., Schmid, K.: Calculating roi for software product lines. IEEE Software 21, 32–38 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Jürgen Münch Pekka Abrahamsson

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Nonaka, M., Zhu, L., Babar, M.A., Staples, M. (2007). Project Cost Overrun Simulation in Software Product Line Development. In: Münch, J., Abrahamsson, P. (eds) Product-Focused Software Process Improvement. PROFES 2007. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 4589. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73460-4_29

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73460-4_29

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-73459-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-73460-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics