Abstract
Where are science and technology heading in the decades ahead? All leading industrial nations have been looking for plausible answers to this question. Government agencies and industry - particularly in Japan and the US - have been carrying out technological studies in recent years to gather facts and arguments for their research planning. This article gives a brief introduction of some of the methodologies for foresight in science and technology used in Germany. As Germany recently has started to work in this field on federal and state level, an overview of the recent German experiences in technology foresight will be provided, focusing on two methodologies including a German Delphi inquiry which is modeled like the Japanese Delphi inquiries and the relevance tree approach. The concluding chapter briefly discusses how these government activities may be and are now effectively used for different purposes.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Coates, J.F., Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking, Futures Research Quarterly Vol. 1, 29–53(1985).
Martin, B., Irvine, J., Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science, Printer Publishers, London 1989.
Grupp, H., ed., Technologie am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts, 2nd edition, Physica-Springer, Berlin, 1995.
Grupp, H., ed., Technologie at the Beginning of the 21st Century, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 6, No. 4, 379–409 (1994).
Grupp, H. (ed.), Dynamics of Science-Based Innovation, Springer Publishers, Berlin, New York, London, 1992.
Rowe, G., Wright, G. and Bolger, F., Delphi: A Reevaluation of Research and Theory, Technological Forecasting and Socical Change 39, 235–251(1991).
Martino, J. P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, North-Holland, New York, 2nd edition, 1983.
Bardecki, M. J., Participants’ Response to the Delphi Method: An Attitudical Perspective, Technological Forecasting and Socical Change 25, 281–292(1984).
Martino, J. P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, North-Holland, New York, 2nd edition, 1983.
BMFT (ed.),Deutscher Delphi-Bericht zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik, Bonn, 1993.
Cuhls, K. and Kuwahara, T., Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology, Physica-Verlag, Springer Publishers, Heidelberg, 1994.
Grupp, H., Der Delphi-Report, dva, Stuttgart, 1995.
Cuhls, K.; Breiner, S. and Grupp, H., Delphi-Bericht 1995 zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik - Mini-Delphi, Karlsruhe, 1995, in print.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Breiner, S. (1996). Foresight in Science and Technology. In: Inzelt, A., Coenen, R. (eds) Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight. NATO ASI Series, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0351-7_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0351-7_13
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-6650-1
Online ISBN: 978-94-009-0351-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive