Abstract
This paper derives closed-form solutions for the total consumption-expenditure function (i.e., aggregate consumption function), the savings function and the demand functions from a nonstationary intertemporal utility-maximization problem under uncertainty for a class of demand systems, including the linear expenditure system (LES) from the Klein-Rubin-Samuelson (KRS) utility function, the generalized linear expenditure systems (GLES) from the CES and S-branch-tree utility functions, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) from the PIGLOG class of preferences, and the indirect addilog demand system (IADS). We do so by following Hicks’ and Tinmer’s method of maximizing a discounted utility function subject to expected constraints rather than the more fashionable method of maximizing an expected discounted utility function subject to stochastic constraints. Furthermore, the preferences are allowed to vary with the time period. Theoretical analyses for these systems are also given in this paper.
Work supported by NSF grant SES-8607652. The comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee of this Volume greatly improved the paper.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Notes
The inequality in the budget constraint can be removed by assuming preferences to be locally nonsatiated. Note that if the stochastic budget constraint holds with equality, so must the expected budget constraint.
Extension to the general case where b varies with time is possible but the exposition is simpler if attention is restricted to the case where b is constant over time.
We use this terminology in place of the widespread’ stone-Geary utility function’ used by Powell (1973) and which apparently derives from Brown and Heien (1972), who referred to the LES as the’ stone-Geary linear expenditure system’. This attribution is simply not accurate and we do not wish to perpetuate it The form (15) was first obtained by Samuelson (1948) upon integrating the LES demand functions first proposed by Klein and Rubin (1948) — who had shown that this system of demand functions was integrable. Samuelson’s result was subsequently rediscovered — without reference to Samuelson — by Geary (1949), who expressed (15) in the shifted Cobb-Douglas form exp (u). Stone (1954) presented his work as an empirical implementation of the Klein-Rubin (1948) LES, and referred to Samuelson’s (1948) result but not to Geary’s (1949).
As was pointed out in footnote 2, we can still obtain closed-form solutions even if this assumption is dropped.
References
Allais, M.: 1953, ‘Le comportement de l’homme devant le risque; critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école américaine’, Econometrica, 21, 503–546.
Anderson, G., and R. Blundell: 1985, ‘Empirical Approaches to Dynamic Consumer Demand Behavior’, Working Paper No. 85-23, Department of Economics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Anderson, G., and M. Browning: 1986, ‘Allocating Expenditure: Demand Systems and the Consumption Function, an Integrated Approach’, Working Paper No. 86-07, Department of Economics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Barten, A. P.: 1969, ‘Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Complete System of Demand Equations’, European Economic Review, 1, 7–73.
Ben-Tal, A., and A. Ben-Israel: 1987, ‘A Recourse Certainty Equivalent for Decisions under Uncertainty’, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A.
Blackorby, C., R. Boyce, and R. R. Russell: 1978, ‘Estimation of Demand Systems Generated by the Gorman Polar Form; A Generalization of the S-Branch Utility Tree,’ Econometrica, 46, 345–363.
Brown, M., and D. M. Heien: 1972, ‘The S-branch Utility Tree: A Generalization of the Linear Expenditure System’, Econometrica, 40, 737–747.
Chipman, J. S.: 1985, ‘Estimation of Net-Import Demand Functions for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1959–1982’, in H. Giersch (ed.), Probleme und Perspektiven der weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Jahrestag des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Germany, pp. 197–213.
Chipman, J. S. and G. Tian: 1988b, ‘Generalized Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System’, manuscript.
Chipman, J. S. and G. Tian: 1988c, ‘A General-Equilibrium Intertemporal Model of An Open Economy’, manuscript.
Chipman, J. S. and G. Tian: 1989, ’stochastic Specification and Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System’, in B. Raj (ed.), Advances in Econometrics and Modelling, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, pp.131–142.
Christensen, L. R., D. W. Jorgenson, and L. J. Lau: 1975, ‘Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions’, American Economic Review, 65, 367–383.
Epstein, Z., and K. I. Wolpin: 1988, ‘Dynamic Labor Force Participation of Married Women and Endogenous Work Experience’, typescript.
Deaton, A., and J. Muellbauer: 1980, ‘An Almost Ideal Demand System’, American Economic Review, 70, 312–326.
Geary, R.C.: 1949, ‘A Note on “A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living”’, Review of Economic Studies, 18, 65–66.
Goldberger, A. S., and T. Gamaletsos: 1970, ‘A Cross-Country Comparison of Consumer Expenditure Patterns’, European Economic Review, 1, 357–400.
Hall, R. E.: 1978, ’stochastic Implications of the Life-Cycle Permanent-Income Hypotheses: Theory and Evidence’, Journal of Political Economy, 86, 971–987.
Hicks, J. R.: 1935, ‘Wages and Interest: The Dynamic Problem’, Economic Journal, 45, 456–468.
Hicks, J. R.: 1939, Value and Capital, Clarendon Press, Oxford, England.
Houthakker, H. S.: 1960, ‘Additive Preferences’, Econometrica, 28, 244–257.
Howe, H.: 1974, Estimation of the Linear and Quadratic Expenditure Systems: A Cross-Section Case for Colombia, Ph. D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Howe, H.: 1975, ‘Development of the Extended Linear Expenditure System from Simple Saving Assumptions’, European Economic Review, 6, 305–310.
Johansen, L.: 1969, ‘On the Relationship between some Systems of Demand Functions’, Liiketaloudellinen Aikakauskirja, 18, 30–41.
Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky: 1979, ‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk’, Econometrica, 47, 263–291.
Klein, L. R., and H. Rubin: 1948, ‘A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living’, Review of Economic Studies, 15, 84–87.
Lluch, C.: 1973, ‘The Extended Linear Expenditure System’, European Economic Review, 4, 21–32.
Lluch, C.: 1974, ‘Expenditure, Savings and Habit Formation’, International Economic Review, 15, 786–797.
Lluch, C., and M. Morishima: 1973, ‘Demand for Commodities under Uncertain Expectation’, in M. Morishima, et al., Theory of Demand, Real and Monetary, Clarendon Press, Oxford, England, pp. 169–183.
Lluch, C., A. A. Powell, and R. A. Williams: 1977, Patterns in Household Demand and Saving, Oxford University Press, New York, New York, U.S.A.
Lucas, R. E.: 1982, ‘Interest Rates and Currency Prices in a Two-Country World’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 335–359.
Machina, M. J.: 1982, “’Expected utility” Analysis without the Independence Axiom’, Econometrica, 50, 277–323.
MacKinnon, J. G.: 1976, ‘Estimating the Linear Expenditure System and its Generalizations’, in S. M. Goldfeld and R. E. Quandt (eds.), Studies in Nonlinear Estimation, Lippincott, Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A., pp. 143–166.
MaCurdy, T. E.: 1983, ‘A Simple Scheme for Estimating an Intertemporal Model of Labor Supply and Consumption in the Presence of Taxes and Uncertainty’, International Economic Review, 24, 265–289.
Marschak, J.: 1950, ‘Rational Behavior, Uncertain Prospects, and Measurable Utility’, Econometrica, 18, 111–141.
Modigliani, F., and R. Brumberg: 1964, ‘Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data’, in Post Keynesian Economics, K. K. Kurihara (ed.), Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, New Jersey, U.S.A., pp. 388–436.
Musgrove, P.: 1974, Determination and Distribution of Permanent Household Income in Urban South America, Ph. D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Musgrove, P.: 1977, ‘An Extended Linear Permanent Expenditure System (ELPES)’, in A. S. Blinder and P. Friedman (eds.), Natural Resources, Uncertainty, and General Equilibrium Systems, Essays in Memory of Rafael Lusky, Academic Press, New York, New York, U.S.A., 241–255.
Neumann, J. von, and O. Morgenstern: 1947, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 2nd ed., Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A.
Parks, R. W.: 1969, ’systems of Demand Equations: An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Functional Forms’, Econometrica, 37, 629–650.
Parks, R. W.: 1971, ‘Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 900–903.
Pollak, R. A., and T. J. Wales: 1969, ‘Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System’, Econometrica, 37, 611–628.
Pollak, R. A.: 1970, ‘Habit Formation and Dynamic Demand Functions’, Journal of Political Economy, 78, 745–763.
Powell, A.: 1973, ‘Estimation of Lluch’s Extended Linear Expenditure System from Cross-Sectional Data’, Australian Journal of Statistics, 15, 111–117.
Powell, A.: 1974, Empirical Analytics of Demand Systems, Heath, Lexington, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Ronning, G.: 1983, ‘A Note on Barten’s Result Concerning the Estimation of Share Equations’, Postfach 5560, Universität Konstanz, D-7750 Konstanz.
Ramsey, F. P.: 1928, ‘A Mathematical Theory of Saving’, Economic Journal, 38, 543–559.
Samuelson, P. A.: 1948, ’some Implications of “Linearity”’, Review of Economic Studies, 15, 88–90.
Samuelson, P. A.: 1953, ‘Utilité, préference et probabilité, in Econométric Paris: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Colloques Internationaux, XL, 141–150. English translation: 1966, ‘Utility, Preference, and Probability’, in J. E. Stiglitz (ed.), The Collected Scientific Papers of P. A. Samuelson, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A., Vol. 1, 127-136.
Sargent, T. J.: 1979, Macroeconomic Theory, Academic Press, New York, New York, U.S.A.
Sargent, T. J.: 1987, Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Sato, K.: 1972, ‘Additive Utility Functions with Double-Log Consumer Demand Functions’, Journal of Political Economy, 80, 102–124.
Simon, H. A.: 1956, ‘Dynamic Programming under Uncertainty with a Quadratic Criterion Function’, Econometrica, 24, 74–81.
Stone, R.: 1954, ‘Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis: An Application to the British Pattern of Demand’, Economic Journal, 64, 511–527.
Theil, H.: 1954, ‘Econometric Models and Welfare Maximization’, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 72, 60–83.
Theil, H.: 1957, ‘A Note on Certainty Equivalence in Dynamic Programming’, Econometrica, 25, 346–349.
Theil, H.: 1965, ‘The Information Approach to Demand Analysis’, Econometrica, 33, 67–87.
Theil, H.: 1986, Theory and Measurement of Consumer Demand, Vols. 1 and 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam, Holland.
Tintner, G.: 1938a, ‘The Maximization of Utility over Time’, Econometrica, 6, 154–158.
Tintner, G.: 1938b, ‘The Theoretical Derivation of Dynamic Demand Curves’, Econometrica, 6, 375–380.
Wales, T.: 1971, ‘A Generalized Linear Expenditure Model of the Demand for Nondurable Goods in Canada’, Canadian Journal of Economics, 4, 471–484.
Wales, T. J. and A. D. Woodland: 1983, ‘Estimation of Consumer Demand System with Binding Non-Negativity Constraints’, Journal of Econometrics, 21, 263–285.
Wold, H. O. A.: 1952, ‘Ordinal Preference or Cardinal Utility?’, Econometrica, 20, 661–664.
Woodland, A. D.: 1979, ’stochastic Specification and the Estimation of Share Equations’, Journal of Econometrics, 10, 361–383.
Yaari, M. E.: 1987, ‘The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk’, Econometrica, 55, 95–115.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1989 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tian, G., Chipman, J.S. (1989). A Class of Dynamic Demand Systems. In: Raj, B. (eds) Advances in Econometrics and Modelling. Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, vol 15. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7819-6_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7819-6_7
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4048-0
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-7819-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive