Abstract
There is a current opinion that modern civilization has reduced the risk of natural hazards. A thorough analysis of empirical data gathered over the years, however, argues that our society continues to be highly vulnerable to natural disasters that are more destructive then ever. My estimate shows that average losses inflicted by these disasters in the former Soviet Union have now exceeded two percent of GDP per year. Therefore, economic and intellectual input into forecasting should be increased. More accurate and sophisticated forecasting would reduce the number of victims and their losses from natural disasters.
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References
Journal Articles
Arabov, V., Kazaryan, A., Porfiriev, B., Prigozine, A. and Kharash, A. (1989) “Disaster: Lessons and Hopes.” Znanie-Syla. 6, 7 (in Russian).
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Turner, Ralph H. (1983) “Waiting for Disaster: Changing Reactions to Earthquake Forecasts in Southern California.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 1, 2: 307–334.
Book references
Quarantelli, E. L. (1978) Editor. Disasters: Theory and Research. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
Preliminary papers
Pelanda, C. (1981) “Disaster and Socioeconomic Vulnerability.” Preliminary Paper 68, Columbus, OH: Disaster Research Center, The Ohio State University.
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© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Porfiriev, B.N. (1993). Uncertainties in Natural Hazards Prediction and its Effect on User Communities Perception: Soviet Union Case Study. In: Nemec, J., Nigg, J.M., Siccardi, F. (eds) Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8190-5_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8190-5_6
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