Abstract
The behavior of tropical cyclones under enhanced greenhouse conditions has been the subject of considerable speculation. Typical spatial scales of these cyclones are on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers. Therefore they cannot be simulated in global climate models with resolutions of several hundred kilometers. Thus speculation has been largely based on extrapolation from their present observed distribution, and on simple parametric relationships. However, the conditions under which tropical cyclones form, the intensities they reach, and their usual paths depend on a number of dynamic and thermodynamic factors that may change in complex ways with changing climate. Recent studies using finer resolution global and regional climate models, sensitivity studies that model individual cyclones, and parametric studies have been reviewed. These suggest that the future behavior of tropical cyclones remains an open question, with changes of either sign possible in numbers and intensities. The paper also describes the combined effect on coastal inundation of mean sea level rise and changes in storm surges due to tropical and extratropical cyclones. Impact studies highlight the importance of taking both these factors into account and the highly site-specific nature of the problem.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anthes R.A.: 1982, Tropical Cyclones: Their Evolution, Structure, and Effects, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Meteorological Monographs No. 41, Boston, Massachusetts.
Bengtsson L., Botzet M., and Esch M.: 1994, Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the next 50 Years Lead to Higher Frequency and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes? Max-Planck-Institut fir Meteorologie Report No. 139. Bengtsson L., Botzet M., and Esch M.: 1995, Tellus 47A, 175.
Broccoli A.J., Manabe S., Mitchell J.F.B., and Bengtsson L.: 1995, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 2,243. DeMaria M. and Kaplan J.: 1994, J. Climate 7, 1, 324.
Emanuel K.A.: 1988, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 1, 141.
Emanuel K.A.: 1991, Annu. Rev. Fluid. Mech. 23, 179.
Emanuel K.A.: 1995, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 2, 241.
England M.H.: 1995, Geophys. Re,s'. Letters 22, 3, 051.
Evans J.L.: 1993, J. Climate 6, 1, 133.
Giorgi F., Shields Brodeur C., and Bates G.T.: 1994, J. Climate 7, 375.
Gray W.M.: 1975, Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Dept. of Atm. Sci. Paper No. 234, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado.
Henderson-Sellers A., Holland G.J., McGuffie K., Tonkin H., and Li S.: 1995, Implications for anthropogenic climate change for tropical cyclone intensity, in: Proceedings of 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 24-28, American Meteorological Society, pp. 354-356.
Holland G.J.: In press, J. Atmos. Sci.
Hubbert G.D., Leslie L.M., and Manton M.J.: 1990, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 116, 1, 005.
Knutson T.R. and Manabe S.: 1994, Geophys. Res. Letters 21, 2, 295.
Lighthill J., Holland G., Gray W., Landsea C., Craig G., Evans J., Kurihara Y., and Guard C.: 1994, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 2, 147.
Love G.: 1988, Cyclone storm surges post greenhouse, in: Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change, Pearman G.I. (ed), Brill E.J. Leiden, The Netherlands, pp. 202 - 215.
Mayfield M., Avila L., and Rappaport E.N.: 1994, Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 517.
McGregor J.L. and Walsh K.: 1994, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 20, 889.
McInnes K.L. and Hubbert G.D.: 1995, Extreme Events and the Impact of Climate Change on Victoria',s Coastline, Victorian Environment Protection Authority, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Meehl G.A., Branstator G.W., and Washington W.M.: 1993, J. Climate 6, 42.
Nicholls N.: 1989, Global warming, tropical cyclones and ENSO, in: Proceedings of Workshop on Responding to the Threat of Global Warming. Options for the Pacific and Asia, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, pp. 2. 19-2. 36.
Philander G.: 1990, El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation, Academic Press, New York. Ryan B.F., Watterson I.G., and Evans J.L.: 1992, Geophys. Res. Letters 19, 1, 831.
Smith D.I.: 1995, The effectiveness of planning for urban flood and surge in Australia, in: Proceedings of Workshop on Atmospheric Hazards: Process, Awareness and Response, University of Queensland. St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
Tett S.: 1995, J. Climate 8, 1, 473.
Tokioka T., Noda A., Kitoh A., Nikaidou Y., Nakagawa S., Motoi T., Yukimoto S., and Takata K.: 1995, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 74 (4), 817.
Walsh K. and McGregor J.L.: 1995, J. Climate 8, 2, 387.
Warrick R.A and Oerlemans H.: 1990, Sea level rise, in: Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Houghton J.T., Jenkins G.J., and Ephramus J.J. (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
Watterson LG., Evans J.L., and Ryan B.F.: 1995, J. Climate 8, 3, 052.
Whetton P.H., Mullan AB., and Pittock A.B.: In press, Climate change scenarios for Australia and New Zealand, in: Proceedings of Greenhouse 94,Pearman G.I. and Manning M. (eds), Wellington, New Zealand.
Wigley T.M.L.: 1995, Geophys. Res. Letters 22, 45.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1996 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pittock, A.B., Walsh, K., Mcinnes, K. (1996). Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Inundation under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions. In: Erda, L., et al. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4745-8
Online ISBN: 978-94-017-1053-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive