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The pioneer's curse: Selection bias and agricultural land degradation

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Abstract

Expansion of agriculture into new regions has often been followed by land degradation. In this article, it is argued that the process of land development involves the selection of pioneer's with optimistic expectations about the robustness and carrying capacity of new land. Hence, there is a systematic bias towards overexploitation and land degradation. The argument is shown to be an extension of the winner's curse analysis in the theory of auctions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, GPO Box 4, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    John Quiggin

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  1. John Quiggin
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Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland

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Quiggin, J. The pioneer's curse: Selection bias and agricultural land degradation. J Risk Uncertainty 5, 241–246 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00057880

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00057880

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