Solar constant secular changes

Abstract

Our recent model for solar constant secular changes suggests that over extended time intervals, a positive correlation of the solar constant with solar activity results. The positive correlation in this model is not associated with the direct result of active region, which may be in a close ‘energy balance’ over their lifetimes, but rather is associated with global features - bright global faculae. These exist as both polar and network features on the solar disk. The high latitude faculae enable the solar constant to peak prior to sunspot maximum. Recent solar constant observations support the model's general trend. Using this model, we now calculate a ‘proxy’ solar constant for: (1) the past four centuries, based upon the sunspot record, (2) the past nine centuries, based upon ¹⁴C observations and their relation to solar activity, and (3) the next decade, based upon a dynamo theory model for the solar cycle. The proxy solar constant data is tabulated as it may be useful for climate modelers studying global climate changes. This could be helpful in disentangling possible solar influences from any anthropogenic changes associated with trace gas increases in the terrestrial atmosphere. An important point for climate modelers to consider in fixing climate model parameters, is that the Sun has been relatively active and thus bright in the latter half of the 20th century, compared with the past few centuries.