Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Variability of the Pacific Ocean is examined in numerical simulations with an ocean general circulation model forced by observed anomalies of surface heat flux, wind stress and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) over the period 1970-88. The model captures the 1976-77 winter time climate shift in sea surface temperature, as well as its monthly, seasonal and longer term variability as evidenced in regional time series and empirical orthogonal function analyses. Examination of the surface mixed-layer heat budget reveals that the 1976-77 shift was caused by a unique concurrance of sustained heat flux input anomalies and very strong horizontal advection anomalies during a multi-month period preceding the shift in both the central Pacific region (where cooling occurred) and the California coastal region (where warming occurred). In the central Pacific, the warm conditions preceding and the cold conditions following the shift tend to be maintained by anomalous vertical mixing due to increases in the atmospheric momentum flux (TKE input) into the mixed layer (which deepens in the model after the shift) from the early 1970s to the late 1970s and 1980s. Since the ocean model does not contain feedback to the atmosphere and it succeeds in capturing the major features of the 1976-77 shift, it appears that the midlatitude part of the shift was driven by the atmosphere, although effects of midlatitude ocean-atmosphere feedback are still possible. The surface mixed-layer heat budget also reveals that, in the central Pacific, the effects of heat flux input and vertical mixing anomalies are comparable in amplitude while horizontal advection anomalies are roughly half that size. In the California coastal region, in contrast, where wind variability is much weaker than in the central Pacific, horizontal advection and vertical mixing effects on the mixed layer heat budget are only one-quarter the size of typical heat flux input anomalies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander MA (1990) Simulation of the response of the North Pacific Ocean to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with El Niño. Clim Dyn 5:53–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander MA (1992) Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part I: the north Pacific Ocean and part II: the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere. J Clim 5:944–972

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP (1981) On the nature and causes of large-scale thermal variability in the central North Pacific Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 11:887–904

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP (1984) Long term trends in surface temperature over the oceans. Mon Weather Rev 112:303–312

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP, Latif M, Kirk E, Roeckner (1991) On ENSO physics. J Clim 4:487–515

    Google Scholar 

  • Bleck R, Boudra DB (1981) Initial testing of a numerical ocean circulation model using a hybrid coordinate (quasi-isopycnic) vertical coordinate. J Phys Oceanogr 11:755–770

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163–172

    Google Scholar 

  • Cardone VJ, Greenwood JG, Cane MA (1990) On trends in historical marine data. J Clim 3:113–127

    Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR (1990) Variability of latent and sensible heat fluxes over the oceans. PhD. Dissertation, University of California, San Diego

    Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR (1992a) Variability of latent and sensible heat fluxes estimated using bulk formulae. Atmos Ocean 30:1–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR (1992b) Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans: the connection to monthly atmospheric forcing. J Clint 5:354–369

    Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR (1992c) Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans: driving the sea surface temperature. J Phys Oceanogr 22:859–881

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR, Miller AJ, Barnett TP, Graham NE, Ritchie JN, Oberhuber JM (1993) A two-decade simulation of the Pacific Ocean forced by observed monthly surface marine observations. In: Climate von decade-to-century time scales. National Academy of Sciences press, Washington DC, 20418 (in press)

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE (1978) Predictability of sea level pressure anomalies over the north Pacific Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 8:233–246

    Google Scholar 

  • Douglas AV, Cayan DR, Namias J (1982) Large-scale changes in north Pacific and North American weather patterns in recent decades. Mon Weather Rev 110:1851–1862

    Google Scholar 

  • Ebbesmeyer CC, Cayan DR, McLain DR, Nichols FH, Peterson DH, Redmond KT (1991) 1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968–75 and 1977–1984. In: Betancourt JL, Tharp VL (eds) Proceedings of the 7th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, California Department of Water Resources, Interagency Ecological Studies Program Technical Report 26

  • Folland CK, Parker DE, Kates FE (1984) Worldwide marine temperature fluctuations 1856–1981. Nature 310:670–673

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankignoul C (1985) Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feed-back in the mittle latitudes. Rev Geophys 23:357–390

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaffen DJ, Barnett TP, Elliot WP (1991) Space and time scales of global tropospheric moisture. J Clim 4:989–1008

    Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE, Niiler PP (1973) The theory of the seasonal variability in the ocean. Deep-Sea Res 20:141–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldenberg SB, O'Brien JJ (1981) Time and space variability of tropical pacific wind stress. J Phys Oceanogr 11:1190–1207

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham NE (1991) Decadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: Obervations and model results. In: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Annual Climate Diagnostic Workshop, US Department of Commerce/NOAA/NWS/NMC/CAC PB9-1171082

  • Graham NE (1993) Decadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim Dyn (in press)

  • Graham NE, Barnett TP, Schlese U, Bengtsson L (1993) On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation. Manuscript in preparation

  • Halliwell GR, Cornillon P (1989) Large-scale SST anomalies associated with subtropical fronts in the western North Atlantic during FASINEX. J Mar Res 47:757–775

    Google Scholar 

  • Haney RL (1980) A numerical case study of the development of large-scale thermal anomalies in the central north Pacific Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 10:541–556

    Google Scholar 

  • Haney RL (1985) Midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies: a numerical hindcast. J Phys Oceanogr 15:787–799

    Google Scholar 

  • Haney RL, Shriver WS, Hunt KH (1978) A dynamical-numerical study of the formation and evolution of large-scale ocean anomalies. J Phys Oceanogr 8:952–969

    Google Scholar 

  • Haney RL, Risch MS, Heise GC (1981) Wind forcing due to synoptic storm activity over the north Pacific Ocean. Atmos Ocean 19 (2):128–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Hotel JD, Wallace JM (1981) Planetary scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 109:813–829

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang JCK (1979) Numerical case studies for ocean thermal anomalies with a dynamical model. J Geophys Res 84:5717–5726

    Google Scholar 

  • Isemer H-J, Hasse L (1987) The Bunker Climate Atlas of the North Atlantic Ocean. Vol. 2: air-sea interactions. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Kashiwabara T (1987) On the recent winter cooling in the North Pacific. Tenki 34:777–781 (in Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A (1991) Interannual variations in an atmospheric GCM forced by the 1970–1989 SST. Part 11: low-frequency variability of the winter time Northern Hemisphere extratropics. J Meteorol Soc Japan 69:271–291

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A (1992) Decade-scale interannual variations simulated in an atmospheric GCM using the observed 1970-1989 SST. In: Progress in climate study — report of the Japanese National Projects for WCRP 1987-1991 (in press)

  • Klein P, Hua BL (1988) Mesoscale heterogeneity of the winddriven mixed layer: influence of a quasigeostrophic flow. J Mar Res 46:495–525

    Google Scholar 

  • Levitus S (1982) Climatological atlas of the World Ocea. US Department of Commerce. NOAA Prof Pap 13

  • Liu WT, Gautier C (1990) Thermal forcing on the tropical Pacific from satellite data. J Geophys Res 95:13209–13217

    Google Scholar 

  • Luksch U, von Storch H, Maier-Reimer E (1990) Modeling North Pacific SST anomalies as a response to anomalous atmospheric forcing. J Mar Syst 1:155–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Luksch U, von Storch H (1992) Modeling the low-frequency sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific. J Clim 5:893–906

    Google Scholar 

  • McLain DR (1983) Coastal ocean warming in the Northeast Pacific, 1976–1983. In: Pearcy WG (ed) The influence of ocean conditions on the production of salmonids in the North Pacific. Oregon State University, Sea Grant Program, ORESUW-83-001

  • Michaud R, Lin CA (1992) Monthly summaries of merchant ship surface marine observations and implication for climate variability studies. Clim Dyn 7:45–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller AJ (1992) Large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in a simplified coupled model of the midlatitude winter time circulation. J Atmos Sci 49:273–286

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller AJ, Oberhuber JM, Graham NE, Barnett TP (1992) Tropical Pacific Ocean response to observed winds in a layered general circulation model. J Geophys Res 97:7317–7340

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J (1963) Large-scale air-sea interactions over the North Pacific from the summer 1962 through the subsequent winter. J Geophys Res 68:6171–6186

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J (1976) Negative ocean-air feedback systems over the North Pacific in the transition from warm to cold seasons. Mon Weather Rev 104:1107–1121

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J (1978) Multiple causes of the North American abnormal winter 1976–77. Mon Weather Rev 106:279–295

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J, Yuan X, Cayan DR (1988) Persistence of North Pacific sea surface temperature and atmospheric flow patterns. J Clim 1:682–703

    Google Scholar 

  • Nitta T, Yamada S (1989) Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J Meteorol Soc Japan 67:375–383

    Google Scholar 

  • Oberhuber JM (1993) Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea ice - mixed layer - isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: model description and part II: model experiment. J Phys Oceanogr 22:808–845

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer TN, Sun Z (1985) A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperature in the northwest Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 111:947–975

    Google Scholar 

  • Pavia EG, O'Brien JJ (1986) Weibull statistics of wind speed over the ocean. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25:1324–1332

    Google Scholar 

  • Peixoto JP, Oort AH (1992) The physics of climate. American Institute of Physics, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Posmentier ES, Cane MA, Zebiak SE (1989) Tropical Pacific trends since 1960. J Clim 2:731–736

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramage CS (1986) A comparative analysis of marine records from ocean weather stations and merchants-ships. In: Woodruff SD (ed) Proceedings of a COADS Workshop, NOAA Techn Memo ERL ESG-23

  • Seymour RJ, Strange RR, Cayan DR, Nathan RA (1984) Influence of El Niflos on California's wave climate. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, American Society of Coastal engineering, Houston

    Google Scholar 

  • Suga T, Hanawa K (1990) The mixed-layer climatology in the northwestern part of the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the formation area of subtropical mode water. J Mar Res 48:543–566

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanimoto Y, Iwasaka N, Hanawa K, Toba Y (1992) Characteristics variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific. J Clim (sub judice)

  • Trenberth KE (1990) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 71:988–993

    Google Scholar 

  • Tokioka T, Kitoh A, Nakagawa S (1992) Relationships between monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies and sea level pressure anomalies realized in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. In: 2nd Int Conf on Modelling Global Climate Change and Variability (Abstr), 7-11 Sep 1992, MPI Hamburg

  • Venrick EL, McGowan JA, Cayan DR, Hayward TL (1987) Climate and chlorophyll a: long-term trends in the central North Pacific Ocean. Science 238:70–72

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu J-S (1992) The joint normal modes of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system observed from 1967–1986. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Rep no 78

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 92093-0224, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Arthur J Miller, Daniel R Cayan, Tim P Barnett & Nicholas E Graham

  2. Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Germany

    Josef M Oberhuber

Authors
  1. Arthur J Miller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Daniel R Cayan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Tim P Barnett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nicholas E Graham
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Josef M Oberhuber
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Miller, A.J., Cayan, D.R., Barnett, T.P. et al. Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Climate Dynamics 9, 287–302 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204744

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204744

Keywords

Search

Navigation