Abstract
The conclusions derived by Keynes in his Treatise on Probability (1921) concerning induction, analogical reasoning, expectations formation and decision making, mirror and foreshadow the main conclusions of cognitive science and psychology.
The problem of weight is studied within an economic context by examining the role it played in Keynes' applied philosophy work, The General Theory (1936). Keynes' approach is then reformulated as an optimal control approach to dealing with changes in information evaluation over time. Based on this analysis the problem of inductive justification, from a societal perspective, is not, “What can we rationally believe will occur in the economic future, given our past experiences?” but “Can we make the future so as to attain specific economic goals with practical certainty?” An answer requires that restrictions be placed on the methodological individualist approach and the acceptance of a restricted holistic approach.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arrow, K.: 1968, ‘Optimal Capital Policy With Irreversible Investment’, in J. Wolfe (ed.), Value, Capital and Growth: Papers in Honour of Sir John Hicks, Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh.
Arrow, K., and M. Kurz: 1970, Public Investment, the Rate of Return and Optimal Fiscal Policy, John Hopkins Press, Baltimore.
Ayer, A. J.: 1982, Philosophy in the Twentieth Century. Random House, New York.
Bausor, R.: 1984, ‘Towards a Historically Dynamic Economics’, JPKE 3, 360–376.
Brady, M.: 1983, The Foundations of Keynes' Macro Theory: His Logical Theory of Probability and Its Application in the General Theory and After, (Unpublished dissertation), University of California at Riverside.
Brock, W.: 1974, ‘Some Results on the Uniqueness of Steady States in Multisector Models When Future Utilities Are Discounted’, International Economic Review 14, 535–559.
Carnap, R.: 1950, The Logical Foundations of Probability, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Collins, A.: 1978, Studies of Plausible Reasoning, Vol. 1: Human Plausible Reasoning Report 3810. Bolt, Beranek and Newman, Cambridge, Mass.
Davidson, Paul: 1978, Money and the Real World, Halsted Press, New York.
Dow, Sheila: 1981, ‘Weintraub and Wiles: The Methodological Basis of Policy Conflict’, JPKE 3, 325–39.
Estes, W. (ed.): 1978, Handbook of Learning and Cognitive Processes Vol. 5 Human Information Processing, Lawrence Erlbaum, New Jersey.
Glass, A., et al.: 1979, Cognition, Addison-Wesley, Massachusetts.
Hadley, G. and M. Kemp: 1971, Variational Methods in Economics, North Holland, Amsterdam.
Hayes, J.: 1978, Cognitive Psychology, Dorsey, Illinois.
Heiner, R.: 1983, ‘The origin of Predictable Behavior’, American Economic Review 83, 560–595.
Hintzman, R., et al.: 1978. The Psychology of Learning and Memory, Freeman, San Francisco.
Hunt, M.: 1982, The Universe Within, Simon and Schuster, New York.
Keynes, J. M.: 1940, ‘The United States and the Keynes Plan’, New Republic.
Keynes, J. M.: 1952, A Treatise on Probability 5th ed. Macmillan, London.
Keynes, J. M.: 1965, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt, Bruce and World, New York.
Kyburg, Henry E.: 1970, Probability and Inductive Logic, Macmillan, London.
Lachman, R., et al.: 1979, Cognitive Psychology and Information Processing, Lawrence Erlbaum, New Jersey.
Leviaton, N. and P. Samuelson: 1969, ‘Notes on Turnpikes: Stable and Unstable’, Journal of Economic Theory 1, 454–475.
Lindsey, P. and Norman, D.: 1977, Human Information Processing, Academic Press, New York.
Loasby, B.: 1984 ‘On Scientific Method’, JPKE 3, 394–410.
Mayer, R.: 1977, Thinking and Problem Solving, Scott, Foresman, Illinois.
Murdock, B.: 1974, Human Memory: Theory and Data, Lawrence Erlbaum, Maryland.
Newell, A. and Simon, H.: 1972, Human Problem Solving, Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
Ramsey, F.: 1928, ‘A Mathematical Theory of Saving’, Economic Journal 38, 543–559.
Rescher, N.: 1980, Induction, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
Rousseas, S.: 1981, ‘Wiles' Wily Weltanschauung’, JPKE 3, 340–351.
Rutherford, M.: 1984, ‘Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: Acritique’, JPKE 3, 377–387.
Shackle, G. L. S.: 1952, Expectation in Economics, Cambridge University Press, England.
Shackle, G. L. S.: 1972, Epistemics and Economics, Cambridge University Press, England.
Shackle, G. L. S.: 1984, ‘Comment’, JPKE 3, 388–394.
Simon, H.: 1978, ‘Information-Processing Theory of Human Problem Solving’, in Estes, W. (ed.), op. cit.
Sternberg, R.: 1977a, ‘Component Processes in Analogical Reasoning’, Psychology Review 84, 353–378.
Sternberg, R.: 1977b, Intelligence, Information Processing and Analogical Reasoning, Lawrence Erlbaum, New Jersey.
Wiles, P.: 1979, ‘Ideology, Methodology and Neoclassical Economics’, JPKE 2, 155–180.
Wiles, P.: 1981, ‘Rejoinder’, JPKE 3, 352–358.
Wyer, R.: 1974, Cognitive Organization and Change: An Information Processing Approach, Lawrence Erlbaum, Maryland.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Brady, M.E. J. M. Keynes' ‘theory of evidential weight’: Its relation to information processing theory and application in The General Theory. Synthese 71, 37–59 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00486435
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00486435