Abstract
Subject attrition is a potentially serious threat to the validity of inferences drawn from panel studies of delinquency and drug use. Prior assessments of this issue produce somewhat conflicting results, with some finding that respondents who leave the panel have higher rates of delinquency and drug use than those who remain, while other studies report little or no differential attrition. Despite these findings, there has been virtually no examination of the extent to which respondent attrition can bias substantive findings in panel studies of delinquency and drug use. The present article addresses this issue by simulating higher levels of attrition in an ongoing panel study that has a low rate of attrition and little differential attrition. It finds that failure to include more elusive respondents (those who are more mobile) would bias estimates of prevalence and frequency of delinquency and drug use as well as results from basic regression analyses. Failure to include less cooperative respondents (those who require more contacts) produces similar, but somewhat smaller, differences. The methodological implications of the results are discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ageton, S. S. (1983). The dynamics of female delinquency, 1976–1980.Criminology 21: 555–584.
Bachman, J., O'Malley, P. M., and Johnston, J. (1978).Youth in Transition: Adolescence to Adulthood-Change and Stability in the Lives of Young Men, Vol. 6. Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Bebbington, A. C. (1970). The effect of non-response in the sample survey with an example.Hum. Relat. 23: 169–180.
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., and Visher, C. A. (1986).Criminal “Careers and Criminals” National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Capaldi, D., and Patterson, G. R. (1987). An approach to the problem of recruitment and retention rates for longitudinal research.Behav. Assess. 9: 169–177.
Cordray, S., and Polk, K. (1983). The implications of respondent loss in panel studies of deviant behavior.J. Res. Crime Delinq. 20: 214–242.
DeMaio, T. J. (1980). Refusals: Who, where and why?Public Opin. Q. 44: 223–233.
Dunkelberg, W. C., and Day, G. S. (1973). Nonresponse bias and callbacks in sample surveys.J. Market. Res. X: 160–168.
Elliott, D. S., and Huizinga, D. H. (1983). Social class and delinquent behavior in a national youth panel, 1976–1980.Criminology 21: 149–177.
Elliott, D. S., and Voss, H. L. (1974).Delinquency and Dropout, D. C. Heath, Lexington, MA.
Elliot, D. S., Ageton, S. S., Huizinga, D. H., Knowles, B. A., and Canter, R. J. (1983). The prevalence and incidence of delinquent behavior, 1976–1980. National Youth Survey Report No. 26. Behavioral Research Institute, Boulder, CO.
Elliott, D. S., Huizinga, D. H., and Ageton, S. S. (1985).Explaining Delinquency and Drug Use, Sage, Beverly Hills, CA.
Elliott, D. S., Huizinga, D. H., and Menard, S. (1989).Multiple Problem Youth: Delinquency, Substance Use, and Mental Health Problems, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Farnworth, M., Thornberry, T. P., Lizotte, A. J., and Krohn, M. D. (1990). Sampling design and implementation. Technical Report 1, Rochester Youth Development Study, School of Criminal Justice, State University of New York, Albany.
Farrington, D. P., Ohlin, L. E., and Wilson, J. Q. (1986).Understanding and Controlling Crime: Toward a New Research Strategy, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Farrington, D. P., Gallagher, B., Morley, L., St. Ledger, R. J., and West, D. J. (1990). Minimizing attrition in longitudinal research: Methods of tracing and securing cooperation in a 24-year follow-up study. In Magnusson, D., and Bergman, L. R. (eds.),Data Quality in Longitudinal Research, University of Cambridge Press, Cambridge, pp. 122–147.
Fitzgerald, R., and Fuller, L. (1982). I hear you knocking but you can't come in: The effects of reluctant respondents and refusers on sample survey estimates.Sociol. Methods Res. 11: 3–32.
Flanagan, T. J., and Jamieson, K. M. (eds.) (1988).Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics-1987, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, USGPO, Washington, DC.
Gottfredson, D. (1986). An empirical test of school-based environmental and individual interventions to reduce the risk of delinquent behavior.Criminology 24: 705–732.
Hawkins, D. F. (1977). Working Papers in Methodology, No. 8, Nonresponse in Detroit Area Study Surveys: A Ten-year Analysis, Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
Hawkins, J. D., Von Cleve, E., and Catalano, R. (1991). Reducing early childhood aggression: Results of a primary prevention program.J. Am. Acad. Child Adolesc. Psychiat. 30: 208–217.
Hudson, W. (1982).The Clinical Measurement Package: A Field Manual, Dorsey Press, Homewood, IL.
Huizinga, D. H., Esbensen, F.-A., and Weiher, A. (1991a). Are there multiple paths to delinquency?J. Crim. Law Criminol. 82: 83–118.
Huizinga, D. H., Loeber, R., and Thornberry, T. P. (Eds.) (1991b). Urban Delinquency and Substance. Technical Report to the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, U. S. Department of Justice, Washington, DC.
Jessor, R., and Jessor, S. L. (1977).Problem Behavior and Psychosocial Development: A Longitudinal Study of Youth, Academic Press, New York.
Jessor, R., Donovan, J. E., and Costa, F. M. (1991).Beyond Adolescence: Problem Behavior and Young Adult Development, Cambridge University Press, New. York.
Josephson, E., and Rosen, M. (1978). Panel loss in a high school drug study. In Kandel, B. (ed.)Longitudinal Research on Drug Use: Empirical Findings and Methodological Issues, Hemisphere-Wiley, Washington, DC.
Kandel, D. B. (1975). Reaching the hard to reach: Illicit drug use among high school absentees.Addict. Dis. 1: 465–480.
Kandel, D. B., Raveis, V., and Logan, J. (1983). Sex differences in the characteristics of members lost to a longitudinal model: A speculative research note.Publ. Opin. Q. 47: 567–575.
Kish, L. (1965).Survey Sampling, John Wiley, New York.
Krohn, M. D., Stern, S. B., Thornberry, T. P., and Jang, S. J. (1992). The measurement of family process variables: The effect of adolescent and parent perceptions of family life on delinquent behavior.J. Quant. Criminol. 8: 287–315.
Lauritsen, J., Sampson, R., and Laub, J. (1991). The link between offending and victimization among adolescents.Criminology 29: 265–291.
Lefkowitz, M. M., Eron, L. D., Wälder, L. O., and Huesmann, L. R. (1977).Growing Up to be Violent, Pergamon Press, New York.
Loeber, R., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Van Kammen, W., and Farrington, D. P. (1991). Initiation, escalation and desistance in juvenile offending and their correlates.J. Crim. Law Criminol. 82: 36–82.
Menard, S. (1991).Longitudinal Research, Sage, Newbury Park, CA.
Minor, W. W. (1984). Neutralization as a hardening process: Considerations in the modeling of change.Soc. Forces 62: 995–1019.
Newcomb, M. D., and Bentler, P. M. (1989).Consequences of Adolescent Drug Use: Impact on the Lives of Young Adults, Sage, Newbury Park, CA.
Paternoster, R. (1988). Examining three-wave deterrence models: A question of temporal order and specification.J. Crim. Law Criminol. 79: 135–179.
Polk, K., and Ruby, C. H. (1978). Respondent loss in the longitudinal study of deviant behavior. Paper presented at the International symposium on Selected Criminological Topics, Stockholm, Sweden, August.
Polk, K., and Schafer, W. (eds.) (1972).Schools and Delinquency, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Robins, L. N. (1963). The reluctant respondent.Publ. Opin. Q. 27: 276–286.
Sobol, M. (1959). Panel morality and panel bias.Am. Stat. Assoc. J. 54: 52–68.
Thornberry, T. P. (1989). Panel effects and the use of self-reported measures of delinquency in longitudinal studies. In Klein, M. W. (ed.),Cross-National Research in Self-Reported Crime and Delinquency, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 347–369.
Thornberry, T. P., Lizotte, A. J., Krohn, M. D., Farnworth, M., and Jang, S. J. (1991). Testing interactional theory: An examination of reciprocal causal relationships among family, school and delinquency.J. Crim. Law Criminol. 82: 3–25.
U.S. Bureau of the Census (1989).Poverty in the United States, 1987, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 163, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.
West, D. J., and Farrington, D. P. (1977).The Delinquent Way of Life, Heinemann, London.
Wolfgang, M. E., Thornberry, T. P., and Figlio, R. M. (1987).From Boy to Man, from Delinquency to Crime, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Woltman, H., and Bushery, J. (1984). Summary of results from the National Crime Survey panel bias study. In Lehnen, R. G., and Skogan, W. G. (eds.),The National Crime Survey Working Papers, Volume II: Methodological Studies, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, pp. 98–101.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Thornberry, T.P., Bjerregaard, B. & Miles, W. The consequences of respondent attrition in panel studies: A simulation based on the Rochester youth development study. J Quant Criminol 9, 127–158 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01071165
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01071165