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A stage-structured, stochastic population model for the giant kelpMacrocystis pyrifera

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Abstract

We have developed a population model for the giant kelpMacrocystis pyrifera (L.) C. Agardh in southern California, USA. The model includes five life-history stages and takes into account environmental and demographic stochasticity, as well as density-dependent interactions. The density of each stage is predicted on a monthly basis for up to 20 yr, and extinction probability is determined for adult sporophytes. Survival probabilities and rates of reproduction and growth are based on stage-specific responses to environmental conditions (irradiance and temperature), including the occurrence of El Niño events. The model is validated by comparing simulation results to empirical data from natural kelp populations. Results of the model provide insight into patterns observed in natural populations and have applications in resource management.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York, 11794, Stony Brook, New York, USA

    M. A. Burgman

  2. Marine Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, 11794, Stony Brook, New York, USA

    V. A. Gerard

Authors
  1. M. A. Burgman
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  2. V. A. Gerard
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Additional information

Communicated by J. Grassle, Woods Hole

To obtain a copy of the model, please contact Applied Biomathematics, 100 North Country Road, Setauket, New York 11733, USA

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Burgman, M.A., Gerard, V.A. A stage-structured, stochastic population model for the giant kelpMacrocystis pyrifera . Mar. Biol. 105, 15–23 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01344266

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01344266

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