Skip to main content
Log in

Price reaction functions and conjectural variations

An application to the breakfast cereal industry

  • Published:
Review of Industrial Organization Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Price conjectural variations are estimated to measure the degree of price competition in a product differentiated oligopoly. The empirical model is a simultaneous equation system of product demand and price reaction functions. Own and cross price demand elasticities are estimated in conjunction with the price conjectural variations and price reaction function elasticities. The conjectural variations are estimated for pairs of ready-to-eat breakfast cereal products using brand price and quantity data. The empirical results reject competitive brand pricing behavior in favor of independent or collusive pricing. Further, the hypothesis of a unique consistent conjecture is rejected.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amemiya, Takeshi. "The Maximum Likelihood Estimator and the Nonlinear Three Stage Least Squares Estimator in the General Nonlinear Simultaneous Equation Model,"Econometrica, 45 (1977): 955–968.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, Jonathan and Timothy Bresnahan. "The Gains from Merger or Collusion in Product Differentiated Industries,"Journal of Industrial Economics, 33 (1985): 427–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bresnahan, Timothy. "Duopoly Models with Consistent Conjectures,"American Economic Review, 71 (1981): 934–945.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cubbin, John. "Apparent Collusion and Conjectural Variations in Differentiated Oligopoly,"International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1 (1983): 155–163.

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedman, James.Oligopoly Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge Press, 1983.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geroski, Paul A. "The Empirical Analysis of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly," unpublished, 1982.

  • Gollop, Frank M. and Mark J. Roberts. "Firm Interdependence in Oligopolistic Markets,"Journal of Econometrics, 10 (1979): 313–331.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grabowski, Henry and Dennis C. Mueller. "Industrial Research and Development, Intangible Capital Stocks, and Firm Profit Rates,"Bell Journal of Economics, 9 (1978): 328–343.

    Google Scholar 

  • Headen, Robert S. and James W. McKie.The Structure, Conduct, and Performance of the Breakfast Cereal Industry: 1954–1964. Cambridge: Arthur D. Little, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iwata, Gyoichi. "Measurement of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly,"Econometrica, 42 (1974): 947–965.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kamien, Morton I. and Nancy L. Schwartz. "Conjectural Variations,"Canadian Journal of Economics, 16 (1983): 191–211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laitner, J. "Rational Duopoly Equilibria,"Quarterly Journal of Economics, 95 (1980): 641–662.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang, J. Nellie. "An Empirical Conjectural Variation Model of Oligopoly," Working Paper No. 151, Federal Trade Commission, 1987.

  • Roberts, Mark J. "Testing Oligopolistic Behavior,"International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2 (1984): 367–384.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, Robert P. "The Measurement of Conjectural Variations in an Oligopoly Industry," Working Paper No. 102, Federal Trade Commission, 1983.

  • Scherer, Frederic M. "The Breakfast Cereal Industry," in Walter Adams, ed.,The Structure of American Industry. New York: MacMillan, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmalensee, Richard. "Entry Deterrence in the Ready-to-Eat Breakfast Cereal Industry,"Bell Journal of Economics, 9 (1978): 305–327.

    Google Scholar 

  • —— "Econometric Diagnosis of Competitive Localization,"International Journal of Industrial Organization, 3 (1985): 57–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Slade, Margaret E. "Conjectures, Firm Characteristics, and Market Structure,"International Journal of Industrial Organization, 4 (1986): 347–369.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ulph, David. "Rational Conjectures in the Theory of Oligopoly,"International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1 (1983): 131–154.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liang, J.N. Price reaction functions and conjectural variations. Rev Ind Organ 4, 31–58 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02284668

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02284668

Keywords

Navigation