Summary
For the estimation of a potential climatic change induced by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 we use the results of three-dimensional general circulation models (GCM). Although the results from present climate modeling cannot be considered as predictions of future climatic conditions due to the inherent models' deficiencies, they can still serve a useful purpose in climate change scenarios. The reason for this is that climate models are the only tools available to study the response of the climate system to a perturbation in a physically consistent manner and that such types of models can provide a consistent data set of high temporal and spatial resolution. For the Mediterranean area, the results obtained from three different GCMs, namely, the British Meteorological Office model (BMO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research model (NCAR) are shown. The regional and seasonal distributions of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture are used to study the potential changes. The results indicate that the CO2-induced changes for temperature generated by the three models are of similar magnitude. The values of the area mean change range between 2.5 and 4.0 K. The precipitation response results in a diverse pattern. The physical mechanism likely to be responsible for the simulated climatic changes are identified and their statistical significance is tested. This type of work will help us develop the methodology and assist us in gaining insight into the use of climate model scenarios for impact analysis.
Zusammenfassung
Zur Abschätzung einer möglichen Klimaänderung als Folge einer Verdopplung der CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre dienen die Ergebnisse von Studien mit drei-dimensionalen Modellen der atmosphärischen Zirkulation. Diese Ergebnisse können nicht als Klimavorhersagen betrachtet werden, da die gegenwärtigen Modelle noch erhebliche Mängel aufweisen. Sie bilden jedoch die Grundlage zur Entwicklung von Klimaszenarien. Klimamodelle sind gegenwärtig die einzigen Hilfsmittel, um die Reaktion des Klimasystems auf eine externe Störung in physikalisch konsistenter Weise und in hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung zu simulieren. Für den Mittelmeerraum werden die Ergebnisse dreier verschiedener Klimamodelle (British Meteorological Office (BMO); Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)) anhand der regionalen und saisonalen Verteilungen von Temperatur, Niederschlag und Bodenfeuchte vorgestellt. Die durch einen CO2-Anstieg verursachte Änderung der Temperaturverteilung ist bei den drei Modellergebnissen ähnlich. Die räumlichen Mittelwerte liegen zwischen 2,5 und 4,0 K. Der Vergleich der Verteilung hydrologischer Größen ergibt dagegen kein einheitliches Bild. Die den simulierten Klimaänderungen zugrunde liegenden physikalischen Mechanismen werden benannt und die statistische Signifikanz der Klimaänderung wird getestet. Diese Arbeit dient zur Entwicklung einer Methodologie für den Einsatz von Klimamodellszenarien bei der Impaktanalyse.
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Jung, H.J., Bach, W. GCM-derived climatic change scenarios due to a CO2-doubling applied for the Mediterranean area. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 35, 323–339 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02334488
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02334488