Abstract
Reforming Hungarian Agricultural Trade Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation. — In this paper, the authors quantitatively assess the consequences for Hungary of: (i) removing its quantitative import restraints in agriculture, (ii) removing the export subsidy program in agriculture, and (iii) adopting an EU-type “CAP” system in Hungary. The consequences are estimated through the use of a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Hungary, calibrated to the year 1990. The tariff equivalent of the import licenses was estimated through a detailed price comparisons study, the first of its kind for Hungary. Import protection, export subsidies and a potential CAP system would contribute significantly to the Government's fiscal problems.
Zusammenfassung
Zur Reform der ungarischen Handelspolitik mit Agrarprodukten. Eine quantitative Bewertung. — Die Autoren schätzen die quantitativen Folgen, die in Ungarn eintreten würden, wenn (i) die mengenmäßigen Importbeschränkungen für Agrarprodukte aufgehoben würden, (ii) das Subventionsprogramm für Agrarprodukte abgeschafft würde, (iii) ein System vom Typ der gemeinsamen EG-Agrarpolitik in Ungarn eingeführt würde. Die Folgen werden unter Verwendung eines rechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells für eine kleine offene Volkswirtschaft — angepaßt an die ungarischen Verhältnisse des Jahres 1990 — geschätzt. Das Zolläquivalent der Einfuhrlizenzen wurde mit Hilfe detaillierter Preisvergleiche geschätzt, die erstmals für Ungarn angestellt wurden. Importprotektion, Exportsubventionen und ein potentielles System nach dem Vorbild des Gemeinsamen Agrarmarktes würden die Fiskalprobleme des Landes erheblich vergrößern.
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