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Spatial and Temporal Variations in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Temperature: An Analysis Based on RegCM3 Simulations

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Abstract

Regional climate models are important tools to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature at high resolutions. Such information has potential applications in sectors like agriculture and health. In this study, the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) has been integrated in the ensemble mode at 55 km resolution over India for the summer monsoon season during the years 1982–2009. Emphasis has been given on the validation of the model simulation at the regional level. In Central India, both rainfall and temperature show the best correlations with respective observed values. The model gives rise to large wet biases over Northwest and Peninsular India. RegCM3 slightly underestimates the summer monsoon precipitation over the Central and Northeast India. Nevertheless, over these regions, RegCM3 simulated rainfall is closer to the observations when compared to the other regions where rainfall is overestimated. The position of the monsoon trough simulated by the model lies to the north of its original observed position. This is similar to the usual monsoon break conditions leading to less rainfall over Central India. RegCM3 simulated surface maximum temperature shows a large negative bias over the country while the surface minimum temperature is close to the observation. Nevertheless, there is a strong correlation between the all India weighted average surface temperature simulated by RegCM3 and IMD observed values. While examining the extreme weather conditions in Central India, it is found that RegCM3 simulated frequencies of occurrence of very wet days, extremely wet days, warm days and warm nights more often as compared to those in IMD observed values. However, these are systematic biases. The model biases in the frequencies of distribution of rainfall extremes explain the wet and dry biases in different regions in the country. Overall, the inter-annual characteristics of both the rainfall and temperature extremes simulated by RegCM3 in Central India are well in phase with those found in the observed data.

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Acknowledgments

The gridded surface temperature and rainfall data have been obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The initial and boundary conditions to integrate RegCM3 are obtained from http://users.ictp.it/~pubregcm/RegCM3/globedat.htm. This study has been conducted as part of the sponsored project of the Department of Sciences and Technology, Government of India under the grant DST/SR/S4/AS:43/2009.

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  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110 016, India

    S. K. Dash, Ashu Mamgain & K. C. Pattnayak

  2. Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, PO Box 586, 34100, Trieste, Italy

    F. Giorgi

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Dash, S.K., Mamgain, A., Pattnayak, K.C. et al. Spatial and Temporal Variations in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Temperature: An Analysis Based on RegCM3 Simulations. Pure Appl. Geophys. 170, 655–674 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0567-4

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