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Prediction of coral bleaching in the Florida Keys using remotely sensed data

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Abstract

Shallow water tropical coral reefs may bleach due to extremes in a variety of environmental factors. Of particular concern have been temperature, ultraviolet radiation, and photosynthetically available radiation. Satellite observation systems allow synoptic-scale monitoring of coral environments that can be used to investigate the effects of such environmental parameters. Recent advancements in algorithm development for new satellite data products have made it possible to include light availability in such monitoring. Long-term satellite data (2000–2013), in combination with in situ bleaching surveys (N = 3,334; spanning 2003–2012), were used to identify the environmental factors contributing to bleaching of Florida reef tract corals. Stepwise multiple linear regression supports the conclusion that elevated sea surface temperature (SST; partial R 2adj  = 0.13; p < 0.001) and high visible light levels reaching the benthos (partial R 2adj  = 0.06; p < 0.001) each independently contributed to coral bleaching. The effect of SST was modulated by significant interactions with wind speed (partial R 2adj  = 0.03; p < 0.001) and ultraviolet benthic available light (partial R 2adj  = 0.01; p = 0.022). These relationships were combined via canonical analysis of principal coordinates to create a predictive model of coral reef bleaching for the region. This model predicted ‘severe bleaching’ and ‘no bleaching’ conditions with 69 and 57 % classification success, respectively. This was approximately 2.5 times greater than that predicted by chance and shows improvement over similar models created using only temperature data. The results enhance the understanding of the factors contributing to coral bleaching and allow for weekly assessment of historical and current bleaching stress.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank FRRP, AGRRA, and Mote for collecting bleaching data, and NASA, NOAA, and USGS for providing environmental data. Three anonymous reviewers provided substantial comments to improve this manuscript, whose efforts are greatly appreciated. The authors wish to acknowledge support from NOAA (sub-award of NA10OAR4320143) and NASA (several awards from Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry program, Water Quality program, and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership program to CH and awards NNX09AV24G and NNX14AP62A S01 to FMK).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA

    Brian B. Barnes, Pamela Hallock, Chuanmin Hu & Frank Muller-Karger

  2. ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company, Houston, TX, USA

    David Palandro

  3. Mote Marine Laboratory, Tropical Research Laboratory, Summerland Key, FL, USA

    Cory Walter

  4. National Exposure Research Laboratory, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA

    Richard Zepp

Authors
  1. Brian B. Barnes
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  2. Pamela Hallock
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  4. Frank Muller-Karger
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  5. David Palandro
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  6. Cory Walter
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  7. Richard Zepp
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Correspondence to Brian B. Barnes.

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Communicated by Biology Editor Prof Brian Helmuth

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Barnes, B.B., Hallock, P., Hu, C. et al. Prediction of coral bleaching in the Florida Keys using remotely sensed data. Coral Reefs 34, 491–503 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-015-1258-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-015-1258-2

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