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Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific

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Abstract

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone (TC) formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the peak-season (July–September) TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Niño and 14 selected La Niña years during the period 1950–2007.

It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Niño years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20°N, especially east of 130°E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Niño years, while taking a more northward track in the La Niña years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Haikun Zhao  (赵海坤), Liguang Wu  (吴立广) & Weican Zhou  (周伟灿)

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  1. Haikun Zhao  (赵海坤)
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  2. Liguang Wu  (吴立广)
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  3. Weican Zhou  (周伟灿)
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Correspondence to Liguang Wu  (吴立广).

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Zhao, H., Wu, L. & Zhou, W. Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27, 1361–1371 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9

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