Abstract
The highly populated north central India receives 90% of annual rainfall during June to September. The interannual variation of summer monsoon rainfall is less studied compared to central and western India, due to its weak signal with the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Previous studies have reported a marked decadal variation in the ENSO influences on north India rainfall, but the teleconnections of this variation are not satisfactorily understood. A pathway of the changing ENSO influences on north central India rainfall is revealed from observational data analysis and numerical experiments. While La Niña-like conditions produce anomalous northeasterly wind over India and reduce the tropospheric wind shear, the emergence of the Atlantic Niño appears to overtake this ENSO influence. The Atlantic Niño intensifies the meridional stationary wave affecting pressure anomaly over northwest Europe. This excites the Eurasian Rossby wave train along the mid-latitude producing upper-troposphere high pressure anomaly, subsequently affecting north India. Future work should examine the extent to which these teleconnections are represented in climate forecast models to aid the seasonal prediction of north central India rainfall.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ambrizzi T, Hoskins BJ, Hsu H-H (1995) Rossby wave propagation and teleconnection patterns in the austral winter. J Atmos Sci 52:3661–3672
Annamalai H, Liu P (2005) Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties. Quart J R Meteor Soc 131:805–831. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.08
Chen T-C (2002) A North Pacific short-wave train during the extreme phases of ENSO. J Clim 15:2359–2376
Ding Q-H, Wang B (2005) Circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere summer. J Clim 18:3483–3505
Ding Q-H, Wang B (2007) Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon. J Clim 20:3751–3767
Ding Q-H, Wang B (2009) Predicting extreme phases of the India summer monsoon. J Clim 22:346–363
Ding R, Ha KJ, Li JP (2010) Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 34(7–8):1059–1071
Ding H, Keenlyside NS, Latif M (2012) Impact of the equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño–Southern oscillation. Clim Dyn 38:1965–1972. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1097-y
Folland CK, Renwick JA, Salinger MJ, Mullan AB (2002) Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO in the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys Res Lett 29(13):1643. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014201
Gershunov A, Schneider N, Barnett T (2001) Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO–Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: signal or noise? J Clim 14:2486–2492. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Goswami BN (1987) A mechanism for the west-north-west movement of monsoon depressions. Nature 326(26):376–378
Graham NE (1994) Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim Dyn 10:135–162
Hoskins BJ, Ambrizzi T (1993) Rossby wave propagation on arealistic longitudinally varying flow. J Atmos Sci 50:1661–1671
Huang B, Peter W, Thorne etal (2017) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5), upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim 30:8179-8205,. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
Jin Q, Wang C, (2017) A revival of indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002. Nat Clim Change 7(8):587–595 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3348
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, GandinL,Iredel M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, ChelliahM,Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, RopelewskiC,Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471
Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Yang S (2002) Recent change in the connection from the Asian monsoon to ENSO. J Clim 15:1203–1215. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening of relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5423.2156
Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Hoerting M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El-Nino. Science 314:115–119
Krishnamurthy V, Goswami BN (2000) Indian monsoon–ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. J Clim 13:579–595. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Krishnamurti TN, Ardanuy P (1980) The 10–20 day westward propagating mode and breaks in monsoon. Tellus 32:15–26
Kucharski F, Molteni F, Bracco A (2006) Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 26:79–91
Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo J, Molteni F (2008) Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability. Geophys Res Lett 35:L04706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL033037
Lin ZD, Lu RY, Zhou W (2010) Change in early-summer meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific and East Asia around the late 1970s. Int J Climatol 30(14):2195–2204
Molteni F (2003) Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I. Model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Clim Dyn 20:175–191
Nnamchi HC, Li JP, Kucharski F, Kang I-S, Keenlyside NS, Chang P, Farneti R (2016) An equatorial–extratropical dipole structure of the Atlantic Ni˜no. J Clim 29:7295–7311
Pai DS, Sridhar L, Badwaik MR, Rajeevan M (2014) Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901–2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall data set. Clim Dyn.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2307-1
Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1995) All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224
Qu X, Huang G (2012) An enhanced influence of tropical Indian ocean on the South Asia High after the Late 1970s. J Clim 25(20):6930–6941
Ramamurthy K (1969) Monsoons of India, some aspects of the ‘Break in the Indian southwest monsoon during July and August. Forecasting Manual No. IV-18.3. India Meteorological Department, Pune.
Raman CRV, Rao YP (1981) Blocking highs over Asia and monsoon droughts over India. Nature 289:271–273
Ramaswamy C (1956) On the sub-tropical jet stream and its role in the development of large scale convection. Tellus 8:26–60
Ramaswamy C (1962) Breaks in the Indian summer monsoon as a phenomenon of interaction between the easterly and the subtropical westerly jet streams. Tellus 14:337–349
Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, García-Serrano J, Losada T, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Kucharski F (2009) Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett 36:L20705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040048
Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO–monsoon system. J Clim 12:2679–2690. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319
Vellore RK, Krishnan R, Pendharkar J, Choudhary AD, Sabin TP (2014) On the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the Himalayan foothills during monsoon breaks. Clim Dyn 43:2009–2031. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2024-1
Wang S-Y, Davies RE, Huang W-R, Gillies RR (2011) Pakistan’s two-stage monsoon and links with the recent climate change. J Geophys Res 116:D16114
Wang S-Y, Buckley B, Yoon J-H, Fosuâ B (2013) Intensification of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and its impacts on Myanmar. J Geophys Res 118:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50396
Wu CH, Wang SY, Hsu HH (2018) Large-scale control of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion in August. Clim Dyn 51(7):2581–2592. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4029-7
Yadav RK (2009a) Changes in the large-scale features associated with the Indian summer monsoon in the recent decades. Int J Climatol 29:117–133. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1698
Yadav RK (2009b) Role of equatorial central Pacific and northwest of North Atlantic 2-metre surface temperatures in modulating Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 32:549–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0410-x
Yadav RK, Yoo JH, Kusharski F, Abid MA (2010) Why is ENSO influencing northwest India winter precipitation in recent decades? J Clim 23:1979–1993. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCI3202.1
Yadav RK (2017) On the relationship between east equatorial Atlantic SST and ISM through Eurasian wave. Clim Dyn 48:281–295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3074-y
Yadav RK, Srinivas G, Chowdary JS (2018) Atlantic Niño modulation of the Indian summer monsoon through Asian jet.npj. Clim Atmos Sci 1:23. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0029-5
Yadav RK, Roxy MK (2019) On the relationship between north India summer monsoon rainfall and east equatorial Indian Ocean warming. Glob Planet Change 179:23–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.05.001
Yu R, Zhou T (2007) Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of interdecadal change in the East Asian Monsoon. J Clim 20(21):5344–5355
Zhou T et al (2009) Why the Western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. J Clim 22(8):2199–2215
Acknowledgements
The data have been taken from(https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v3.html and ftp://www.tropmet.res.in/pub/data/rain/iitm-subdivrf.txt) and all data sources are duly acknowledged. Computational and graphical analyses required for this study have been completed with the free software xmgrace, NCL and Ferret.
Funding
This research was funded by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, Grant no [0098].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yadav, R.K., Wang, SY.S., Wu, CH. et al. Swapping of the Pacific and Atlantic Niño influences on north central India summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 54, 4005–4020 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05215-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05215-4