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Temperature-dependent sex determination and global change: are some species at greater risk?

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Abstract

In species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), global climate change may result in a strong sex ratio bias that could lead to extinction. The relationship between sex ratio and egg incubation at constant temperature in TSD species is characterized by two parameters: the pivotal temperature (P) and the transitional range of temperature that produces both sexes (TRT). Here, we show that the proportion of nests producing both sexes is positively correlated to the width of the TRT by a correlative approach from sex ratio data collected in the literature and by simulations of TSD using a mechanistic model. From our analyses, we predict that species with a larger TRT should be more likely to evolve in response to new thermal conditions, thus putting them at lower risk to global change.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Allen Foley, Brendan Godley, Marion Hulin and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments. This work complies with the current laws of the country in which it has been performed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution (UMR8079), Faculté des Sciences d’Orsay, Université Paris-Sud, Bâtiment 362, 91405, Orsay, France

    Vincent Hulin, Virginie Delmas, Marc Girondot & Jean-Michel Guillon

  2. AgroParisTech, CNRS, 91405, Orsay, France

    Vincent Hulin, Virginie Delmas, Marc Girondot & Jean-Michel Guillon

  3. Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS, UPR 1934, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France

    Virginie Delmas

  4. Département de Systématique et Evolution, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle de Paris, 25 rue Cuvier, 75005, Paris, France

    Marc Girondot

  5. North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, 1507 Ann St., Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA

    Matthew H. Godfrey

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  1. Vincent Hulin
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  2. Virginie Delmas
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  3. Marc Girondot
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  4. Matthew H. Godfrey
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  5. Jean-Michel Guillon
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Correspondence to Vincent Hulin.

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Communicated by Herwig Leirs.

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Hulin, V., Delmas, V., Girondot, M. et al. Temperature-dependent sex determination and global change: are some species at greater risk?. Oecologia 160, 493–506 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-009-1313-1

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