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Changes in precipitation extremes over arid to semiarid and subhumid Punjab, Pakistan

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Abstract

Asymmetrical monsoons during the recent past have resulted into spatially variable and devastating floods in South Asia. Analysis of historic precipitation extremes record may help in formulating mitigation strategies at local level. Eleven indices of precipitation extremes were evaluated using RClimDex and daily time series data for analysis period of 1981–2010 from five representative cities across Punjab province of Pakistan. The indices include consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, number of days above daily average precipitation, number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm, number of days with precipitation ≥20 mm, very wet days, extremely wet days, simple daily intensity index, maximum 1-day precipitation quantity, maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation quantity, and annual total wet-day precipitation. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope extremes were used to detect trends in indices. Droughts and excessive precipitation were dictated by elevation from mean sea level with prolonged dry spells in southern Punjab and vice versa confirming spatial trends for precipitation extremes. However, no temporal trend was observed for any of the indices. Summer in the region is the wettest season depicting contribution of monsoons during June through August toward devastating floods in the region.

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Acknowledgments

Funds for this research were provided by the Higher Commission of Pakistan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Government College University Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan

    Farhat Abbas, Shafaqat Ali & Farhan Saleem

  2. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    Ashfaq Ahmad

  3. College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA

    Mohammad Safeeq

  4. College of Agriculture Layyah, Sub Campus Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan Punjab, Pakistan

    Hafiz Mohkum Hammad

  5. Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan

    Wajid Farhad

Authors
  1. Farhat Abbas
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  2. Ashfaq Ahmad
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  3. Mohammad Safeeq
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  4. Shafaqat Ali
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  5. Farhan Saleem
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  6. Hafiz Mohkum Hammad
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  7. Wajid Farhad
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Correspondence to Farhat Abbas.

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Abbas, F., Ahmad, A., Safeeq, M. et al. Changes in precipitation extremes over arid to semiarid and subhumid Punjab, Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 116, 671–680 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0988-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0988-8

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