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An expert judgement approach to determining the physical vulnerability of roads to debris flow

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Abstract

The physical vulnerability of roads to debris flow may be expressed through fragility functions that relate flow volume to damage probabilities. Fragility relationships are essential components of quantitative risk assessments as they allow for the estimation of risk within a consequence-based framework. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that fragility curves have been produced in order to provide the conditional probability for a road to be in, or to exceed, a certain damage state for a given debris flow volume. Preliminary assessments were undertaken by means of a detailed questionnaire. A total of 47 returns were received from experts in 17 countries: 32 % academia, 51 % the commercial sector and 17 % governments. Fragility curves have been defined for three damage states (limited damage, serious damage and destroyed) for each of low-speed and high-speed roads in order to cover the typical characteristics of roads vulnerable to debris flow. The probability of any given damage state being reached or exceeded by a debris flow of a given volume (10–100,000 m3) was derived from the mean of the responses received. Inevitably there was a degree of scatter in the results, and the treatment of such variation, or ‘experimental errors’, was crucial to understanding the data and developing the fragility curves. Fragility curves are quantitative expressions of vulnerability. The method adopted is based upon qualitative, expert judgment of quantitative probabilities. In addition to an assessment of the probabilities of given damage states being exceeded, respondents to the questionnaire were polled as to their level of experience and confidence in their ability to provide a valid and coherent set of answers to the questions posed. The development of the fragility curves and their validation are described in the paper.

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Acknowledgments

The work described in this paper was (partially) supported by the European Commission through the project SafeLand “Living with landslide risk in Europe: assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies” under grant agreement no. 226479 in the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The TRL authors gratefully acknowledge additional funding from Transport Scotland. The first author is grateful to Professor Sugon LEE (of the University of Seoul) who hosted his visit to the Republic of Korea.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), 13 Swanston Steading, 109 Swanston Road, Edinburgh, EH10 7DS, UK

    M. G. Winter

  2. Golder Associates (formerly TRL), Cavendish House, Bourne End Business Park, Cores End Road, Bourne End, SL8 8AS, UK

    J. T. Smith

  3. Research Unit of Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, Department of Civil Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloníki, Greece

    S. Fotopoulou, K. Pitilakis & S. Argyroudis

  4. Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Catalonia, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    O. Mavrouli & J. Corominas

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  1. M. G. Winter
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  2. J. T. Smith
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  3. S. Fotopoulou
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  4. K. Pitilakis
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  5. O. Mavrouli
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  7. S. Argyroudis
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Correspondence to M. G. Winter.

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Winter, M.G., Smith, J.T., Fotopoulou, S. et al. An expert judgement approach to determining the physical vulnerability of roads to debris flow. Bull Eng Geol Environ 73, 291–305 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-014-0570-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-014-0570-3

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