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A comparative study of landslide susceptibility mapping using landslide susceptibility index and artificial neural networks in the Krios River and Krathis River catchments (northern Peloponnesus, Greece)

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Abstract

The main scope of this study is to compare the performance of a conventional statistical method like the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) and a soft computing method like artificial neural networks (ANNs). These models were applied in order to realistically map landslide susceptibility (LS) in the Krathis and Krios drainage basins in northern Peloponnesus. The relationship between landslides and various conditioning factors contributing to their occurrence was investigated through geographic information system-based analysis. A landslide inventory was realised using aerial-photos, satellite images and field surveys. Eight conditioning factors, including land cover, geology, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to road network, distance to drainage network, distance to structural elements, were considered. Subsequently, LS maps were produced using LSI and ANNs, and they were then compared and validated accordingly. Model performance was checked by an independent validation set of landslide events. For the validation process, the receiver operating curve was drawn and the area-under-the-curve (AUC) values were calculated. The calculated AUC values were 0.852 for the LSI model, and 0.842 for the ANNs; thus, both methods seem to lead to quite similar results. Based on these results, with an average percentage of correctly predicting landslides of about 84 %, model validation confirms that extrapolation results are very good, and that both models can be used to mitigate hazards related to landslides, and to aid in generalised land-use planning assessment purposes.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge Dimitris Tsagas for providing landslide data. They also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which significantly improved the quality of the paper.

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  1. Department of Geography, Harokopio University, El. Venizelou 70, 17671, Athens, Greece

    Christos Polykretis & Christos Chalkias

  2. Department of Geological Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X54001, Westville, South Africa

    Maria Ferentinou

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  1. Christos Polykretis
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Correspondence to Maria Ferentinou.

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Polykretis, C., Ferentinou, M. & Chalkias, C. A comparative study of landslide susceptibility mapping using landslide susceptibility index and artificial neural networks in the Krios River and Krathis River catchments (northern Peloponnesus, Greece). Bull Eng Geol Environ 74, 27–45 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-014-0607-7

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