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Modeling Abrupt Changes in Population Dynamics with Two Threshold States*

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Cybernetics and Systems Analysis Aims and scope

Abstract

The paper solves the problem of modeling an outbreak of the species, which begins with the achievement of a specific nontrivial state of a dynamic system. Population process is divided into a sequence of substantially different stages. The model simulates the effect of spontaneous transition from weak fluctuations through accelerated reproductive activity to exceeded ecological capacity of the environment followed by the phase of rapid spontaneous decay. To describe the transition between final stages of the outbreak, the method of controlled functional realization of metamorphoses of trajectory behavior are used. Differential equations are combined with predicative constructions in software environment. The original computational unit is based on discrete-continuous time and allows us to apply the scenario approach to the consideration of environmental situations. The significance of the results is justified by the analysis of the data about outbreaks of small insect pests that eat on a limited number of suitable plants and, under certain conditions, can get out of control of parasitic wasps.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia

    A. Yu. Perevaryukha

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  1. A. Yu. Perevaryukha
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Correspondence to A. Yu. Perevaryukha.

Additional information

*The study was carried out within the framework of the Project of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFFI) No. 15-04-01226.

Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 4, July–August, 2016, pp. 145–154.

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Perevaryukha, A.Y. Modeling Abrupt Changes in Population Dynamics with Two Threshold States* . Cybern Syst Anal 52, 623–630 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-016-9864-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-016-9864-8

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