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Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

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Abstract

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge all the colleagues who have contributed to the lake ice phenology database and the National Snow and Ice Data Center for providing a permanent repository for the data. The Swedish ice data were kindly contributed from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The land surface air temperature data were generated by the Climate Research Unit and the Hadley Centre. The North Temperate Lakes LTER database manager, David Balsiger, provided crucial support in maintaining and updating the database. The work and associated workshops were supported by the US National Science Foundation (DEB-9527669, DEB-0217533, DEB-0822700).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 N. Park Street, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Barbara J. Benson & John J. Magnuson

  2. Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    Olaf P. Jensen

  3. College of Arts and Sciences, Metropolitan State University, 700 East 7th Street, St. Paul, MN, 55106, USA

    Virginia M. Card

  4. U.S. Geological Survey, Maine Water Science Center, 196 Whitten Road, Augusta, ME, 04330, USA

    Glenn Hodgkins

  5. Finnish Environment Institute, Freshwater Centre, P. O. BOX 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland

    Johanna Korhonen

  6. Department of Water Resources and Drinking Water, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland

    David M. Livingstone

  7. Department of Biological Science, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA

    Kenton M. Stewart

  8. Department of Ecology and Genetics/Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

    Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer

  9. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

    Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer

  10. Limnological Institute, Post Office Box 4199, Irkutsk, 664033, Russia

    Nick G. Granin

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  1. Barbara J. Benson
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  2. John J. Magnuson
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  4. Virginia M. Card
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  5. Glenn Hodgkins
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  6. Johanna Korhonen
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  7. David M. Livingstone
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  8. Kenton M. Stewart
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  9. Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
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  10. Nick G. Granin
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Correspondence to Barbara J. Benson.

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Benson, B.J., Magnuson, J.J., Jensen, O.P. et al. Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005). Climatic Change 112, 299–323 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0212-8

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