Abstract
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy. We find that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability. We then show that temporal stability can be enhanced by hyperparameter-optimizing random forests and XGBoost classifiers with respect to inter-run stability. Finally, we show that time series smoothing techniques can further enhance temporal stability at the expense of slightly lower accuracy.
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Notes
Inter-run stability refers to the MSPD metric introduced in Liu et al. (2017): \(\textit{MSPD}(f) = 2\mathbb {E}_{x_i}[Var(f(x_i)) - Cov(f_j (x_i), f_k(x_i))],\) where \(\mathbb {E}_{x_i}\) is the expectation over all validation data, f is a mapping from a sample \(x_i\) to a label \(y_i\) on a given run, \(Var(f(x_i))\) is the variance of the predictions of a single data point over the model runs, and \(Cov(f_j (x_i), f_k(x_i))\) is the covariance of predictions of a single data point over two model runs.
Preprocessed data: https://github.com/irhete/stability-predictive-monitoring.
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This research was partly funded by the Estonian Research Council (Grant IUT20-55).
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Teinemaa, I., Dumas, M., Leontjeva, A. et al. Temporal stability in predictive process monitoring. Data Min Knowl Disc 32, 1306–1338 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-018-0575-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-018-0575-9