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Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security

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Abstract

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

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Acknowledgments

The author is thankful to the Director, CSIR-IHBT, Palampur, for the facilities and support. MK is thankful to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi and Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), New Delhi for providing financial support. The author acknowledges Dr. S.K. Vats for his valuable suggestions. The manuscript bears IHBT communication number 3749.

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    Manoj Kumar

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Kumar, M. Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security. Environ Monit Assess 188, 465 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-016-5472-3

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