Abstract
If hydrogen (H2) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H2 can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H2 scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In addition, other technology options to achieve these goals are analyzed. A full fuel cycle analysis is used to compare the energy use and carbon (C) emissions of different fuel and vehicle strategies. Fuel and vehicle costs are presented as well as cost-effectiveness estimates. Lowest hydrogen fuel costs are achieved using fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The fuel supply cost for a H2 fuel cell car would be close to those for an advanced gasoline car, once a large-scale supply system has been established. Biomass, wind, nuclear and solar sources are estimated to be considerably more expensive. However fuel cells cost much more than combustion engines. When vehicle costs are considered, climate policy incentives are probably insufficient to achieve a switch to H2. The carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation cost would amount to several hundred US$ per ton of CO2. Energy security goals and the eventual need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations could be sufficient. Nonetheless, substantial development of related technologies, such as C capture and storage will be needed. Significant H2 use will also require substantial market intervention during a transition period when there are too few vehicles to motivate widely available H2 refueling.
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Notes
In the case of water electrolysis, there are no emissions during hydrogen production. However in most countries the production of electricity is predominantly based on fossil fuels, so there are substantial emissions in electricity production.
Note that 85% is close to the theoretical maximum. The higher heating value (HHV) of H2 is 140 GJ/t, while the lower heating value (LHV) is 120 GJ/t. While the energy required to produce H2 amounts to 140 GJ/t, only 120 GJ/t can be recovered in case the water resulting from H2 combustion is in its gaseous state. The ratio of LHV and HHV is 0.86. Therefore 85% is an optimistic estimate.
The H2 economy can also be expanded in the electric power sector by using H2 for distributed electric power generation or for energy storage to overcome differences in generation and load profiles.
CO2-free electricity is widely considered a prime candidate for cost-effective emission reduction in developed countries. Renewables, nuclear and CO2 capture from fossil fuelled power plants are competing alternatives.
Sensitivity analysis shows that this set of variables is of secondary importance
Hydrogen storage and distribution costs add substantially to the production costs. Estimates range from $2/GJ for a large-scale gaseous hydrogen supply scenario up to $20/GJ for small-scale liquid hydrogen supply scenario.
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Difiglio, C., Gielen, D. Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12, 387–405 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-9074-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-9074-1