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Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

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Abstract

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iida’s method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the “averaged” and “maximum” seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the “seismic gap” theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Rd., Sidney, BC, Canada, V8L 4B2

    EVGUENI A. KULIKOV, ALEXANDER B. RABINOVICH & RICHARD E. THOMSON

  2. P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 36 Nakhimovsky Prosp., Moscow, 117997, Russia

    EVGUENI A. KULIKOV & ALEXANDER B. RABINOVICH

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  1. EVGUENI A. KULIKOV
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  2. ALEXANDER B. RABINOVICH
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KULIKOV, E.A., RABINOVICH, A.B. & THOMSON, R.E. Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile. Nat Hazards 35, 185–209 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4809-3

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