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Scenario-based preparedness plan for floods

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Abstract

The increasing trend of disaster victims globally is posing a complex challenge for disaster management authorities. Moreover, to accomplish successful transition between preparedness and response, it is important to consider the different features inherent to each type of disaster. Floods are portrayed as one of the most frequent and harmful disasters, hence introducing the necessity to develop a tool for disaster preparedness to perform efficient and effective flood management. The purpose of the article is to introduce a method to simultaneously define the proper location of shelters and distribution centers, along with the allocation of prepositioned goods and distribution decisions required to satisfy flood victims. The tool combines the use of a raster geographical information system (GIS) and an optimization model. The GIS determines the flood hazard of the city areas aiming to assess the flood situation and to discard floodable facilities. Then, the multi-commodity multimodal optimization model is solved to obtain the Pareto frontier of two criteria: distance and cost. The methodology was applied to a case study in the flood of Villahermosa, Mexico, in 2007, and the results were compared to an optimized scenario of the guidelines followed by Mexican authorities, concluding that the value of the performance measures was improved using the developed method. Furthermore, the results exhibited the possibility to provide adequate care for people affected with less facilities than the current approach and the advantages of considering more than one distribution center for relief prepositioning.

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Notes

  1. For more information contact Juan Gaytán (jgi@uaemex.mx).

  2. For more information about the complete database please contact the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgments

This research was developed within the project Secretaría del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales—Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología: “La valoración económica de la vulnerabilidad socioeconómica y demográfica ante inundaciones en la República Mexicana”, register: CONACYT 23478; UAEMEX 2753/20090.

We would also like to thank Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional for their time and support, as well as the reviewers for their constructive and insightful comments seeking to improve the quality of the article.

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  1. Operations and Information Management Group, Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK

    Oscar Rodríguez-Espíndola

  2. Graduate School of Engineering, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, CP 50100, Toluca, Mexico

    Juan Gaytán

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Correspondence to Oscar Rodríguez-Espíndola.

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Rodríguez-Espíndola, O., Gaytán, J. Scenario-based preparedness plan for floods. Nat Hazards 76, 1241–1262 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1544-2

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