Abstract
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Drainage canal in local language.
Means a land between two rivers in local language.
Smallest administrative tier in Punjab Province according to Punjab Local Government Ordinance (PLGO), 2001 (Government of Punjab 2001).
References
Abbas HB, Routray JK (2014) Vulnerability to flood-induced public health risks in Sudan. Disaster Prev Manag 23:395–419. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-07-2013-0112
Adelekan IO (2011) Vulnerability assessment of an urban flood in Nigeria: Abeokuta flood 2007. Nat Hazards 56:215–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9564-z
Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:268–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
Adger WN, Brooks N, Bentham G et al (2004) New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich
Ahmad N, Anjum GA (2012) Legal and institutional perplexities hampering the implementation of urban development plans in Pakistan. Cities 29:271–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2011.07.006
Ahsan MN, Warner J (2014) The socioeconomic vulnerability index: a pragmatic approach for assessing climate change led risks—a case study in the south-western coastal Bangladesh. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 8:32–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.009
Ainuddin S, Aldrich DP, Routray JK et al (2013) The need for local involvement: decentralization of disaster management institutions in Baluchistan, Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 6:50–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.04.001
Amini Hosseini K, Hosseini M, Izadkhah YO et al (2014) Main challenges on community-based approaches in earthquake risk reduction: case study of Tehran, Iran. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 8:114–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.03.001
Armaş I (2012) Multi-criteria vulnerability analysis to earthquake hazard of Bucharest, Romania. Nat Hazards 63:1129–1156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0209-2
Atta-ur-Rahman, Khan AN (2011) Analysis of flood causes and associated socio-economic damages in the Hindukush region. Nat Hazards 59:1239–1260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9830-8
Atta-ur-Rahman, Khan AN (2013) Analysis of 2010-flood causes, nature and magnitude in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 66:887–904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0528-3
Balica SF, Wright NG, van der Meulen F (2012) A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts. Nat Hazards 64:73–105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0234-1
Bilham R, Lodi S, Hough S et al (2007) Seismic hazard in Karachi, Pakistan: uncertain past, uncertain future. Seismol Res Lett 78:601–613. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.6.601
Birkmann J (2006) Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: conceptual frameworks and definitions. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University—Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Tokyo, pp 9–54
Birkmann J, Welle T (2015) Assessing the risk of loss and damage: exposure, vulnerability and risk to climate-related hazards for different country classifications. Int J Glob Warm 8:191. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2015.071963
Birkmann J, Cardona OD, Carreño ML et al (2013) Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Nat Hazards 67:193–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5
Bleau S, Blangy S, Archambault M (2015) Adapting nature-based seasonal activities in Quebec (Canada) to climate change. In: Filho WL (ed) Handbook of climate change adaptation. Springer, Berlin, pp 93–122
Bogardi J, Birkmann J (2004) Vulnerability assessment: the first step towards sustainable risk reduction. In: Malzahn D, Plapp T (eds) Disaster and society–from hazard assessment to risk reduction. Logos Verlag, Berlin, pp 75–82
Bollin C, Hidajat R (2006) Community-based risk index: pilot implementation in Indonesia. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University—Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Tokyo, pp 271–289
Bollin C, Cárdenas C, Hahn H, Vatsa K (2003) Disaster risk management by communities and local governments. Inter-American Development Bank, Washington
Boon HJ (2014) Disaster resilience in a flood-impacted rural Australian town. Nat Hazards 71:683–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0935-0
Braun B, Aßheuer T (2011) Floods in megacity environments: vulnerability and coping strategies of slum dwellers in Dhaka/Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 58:771–787. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9752-5
Briguglio L (2003) The vulnerability index and small island developing states: a review of conceptual and methodological issues. In: AIMS regional preparatory meeting on the ten year review of the barbados programme of action, Praia, Cape Verde
Brooks N, Neil Adger W, Mick Kelly P (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob Environ Change 15:151–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006
Browne MJ, Hoyt RE (2000) The demand for flood insurance: empirical evidence. J Risk Uncertain 20:291–306. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007823631497
Burton I, Kates RW, White GF (2005) The environment as hazard, 2nd edn. The Guilford Press, New York
Chadha RK, Papadopoulos GA, Karanci AN (2007) Disasters due to natural hazards. Nat Hazards 40:501–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9010-4
Cochran W (1977) Sampling techniques, 3rd edn. Wiley, New York
Crichton D (1999) The risk triangle. In: Ingleton J (ed) Natural disaster management. Tudor Rose, Leicester, pp 102–103
Cutter SL, Mitchell JT, Scott MS (2000) Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: a case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 90:713–737. https://doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00219
Cutter SL, Carolina S, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL (2003) Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Q 84:242–261. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002
Cutter SL, Johnson LA, Finch C, Berry M (2007) The U.S. hurricane coasts: increasingly vulnerable? Environ Sci Policy Sustain Dev 49:8–21. https://doi.org/10.3200/ENVT.49.7.8-21
Davidson R, Shah H (1997) An urban earthquake disaster risk index. John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Stanford University
Diouf A, Gaye AT (2015) A methodological framework for building an index for vulnerability assessment in rainfed agriculture. In: Filho WL (ed) Handbook of climate change adaptation. Springer, Berlin, pp 3–15
Fakhruddin SHM, Chivakidakarn Y (2014) A case study for early warning and disaster management in Thailand. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 9:159–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.008
Federal Flood Commission (2012) Annual flood report 2012. Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad
Fedeski M, Gwilliam J (2007) Urban sustainability in the presence of flood and geological hazards: the development of a GIS-based vulnerability and risk assessment methodology. Landsc Urban Plan 83:50–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2007.05.012
Flanagan BE, Gregory EW, Hallisey EJ et al (2011) A social vulnerability index for disaster management. J Homel Secur Emerg Manag 8:1–22. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1792
Franklin RC, King JC, Aitken PJ, Leggat PA (2014) “Washed away”—assessing community perceptions of flooding and prevention strategies: a North Queensland example. Nat Hazards 73:1977–1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1180-x
Fuchs S, Birkmann J, Glade T (2012) Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges. Nat Hazards 64:1969–1975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0352-9
Gain AK, Mojtahed V, Biscaro C et al (2015) An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City. Nat Hazards 79:1–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1911-7
Gallopín GC (2006) Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Glob Environ Change 16:293–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004
Garschagen M, Mucke P, Schauber A et al (2014) World Risk Report 2014: the city as a risk area. United Nations University—Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn
Government of Punjab (2001) Punjab local government ordinance 2001. Punjab Printing Press, Islamabad
Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—a case study in Mozambique. Glob Environ Change 19:74–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.002
Holand IS, Lujala P, Rod JK (2011) Social vulnerability assessment for Norway: a quantitative approach. Nor Geogr Tidsskr J Geogr 65:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2010.550167
IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Islam MN, Malak MA, Islam MN (2013a) Community-based disaster risk and vulnerability models of a coastal municipality in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 69:2083–2103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0796-6
Islam MS, Swapan MSH, Haque SM (2013b) Disaster risk index: how far should it take account of local attributes? Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 3:76–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.10.001
Janssen MA, Ostrom E (2006) Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation: a cross-cutting theme of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change. Glob Environ Change 16:237–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.003
Jonkman SN, Kelman I (2005) An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. Disasters 29:75–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0361-3666.2005.00275.x
Kappes MS, Keiler M, von Elverfeldt K, Glade T (2012) Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review. Nat Hazards 64:1925–1958. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2
Kazi A (2014) A review of the assessment and mitigation of floods in Sindh, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 70:839–864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0850-4
Kaźmierczak A, Cavan G (2011) Surface water flooding risk to urban communities: analysis of vulnerability, hazard and exposure. Landsc Urban Plan 103:185–197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.07.008
Kelly PM, Adger WN (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Clim Change 47:325–352. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005627828199
Khan AK (2007) Disaster preparedness for natural hazards: current status in Pakistan. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmundu
Khan S (2012) Vulnerability assessments and their planning implications: a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. Nat Hazards 64:1587–1607. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0327-x
Kirsch TD, Wadhwani C, Sauer L et al (2012) Impact of the 2010 Pakistan floods on rural and urban populations at six months. PLoS Curr. https://doi.org/10.1371/4fdfb212d2432
Lu XX, Ran L (2011) China flood havoc highlights poor urban planning. Nat Hazards 56:575–576. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9720-0
Maiti S, Jha SK, Garai S et al (2015) Assessment of social vulnerability to climate change in the eastern coast of India. Clim Change 131:287–306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1379-1
Mustafa D (2003) Reinforcing vulnerability? Disaster relief, recovery, and response to the 2001 flood in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Environ Hazards 5:71–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2004.05.001
Mustafa D (2008) Structural causes of vulnerability to flood hazard in Pakistan. Econ Geogr 74:289–305. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.1998.tb00117.x
Mwale FD, Adeloye AJ, Beevers L (2015) Quantifying vulnerability of rural communities to flooding in SSA: a contemporary disaster management perspective applied to the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 12:172–187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.01.003
NDMA (2012) National disaster management plan 2012. Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad
Nhuan MT, Tue NT, Hue NTH et al (2016) An indicator-based approach to quantifying the adaptive capacity of urban households: the case of Da Nang city, Central Vietnam. Urban Clim 15:60–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2016.01.002
Panthi J, Aryal S, Dahal P, Bhandari P (2015) Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal. Reg Environ Chang. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0833-y
Pelling M (2003) The vulnerability of cities: natural disasters and social resilience. Earthscan, London
Phung D, Rutherford S, Dwirahmadi F et al (2015) The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta. Vietnam. Int J Biometeorol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1078-7
Qasim S, Qasim M, Prasad Shrestha R, Nawaz Khan A (2017) An assessment of flood vulnerability in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. AIMS Environ Sci 4:206–216. https://doi.org/10.3934/environsci.2017.2.206
Rana IA, Routray JK (2016) Actual vis-à-vis perceived risk of flood prone urban communities in Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 19:366–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.08.028
Rana IA, Bhatti SS, Arshad HSH (2017a) Assessing the socioeconomic and infrastructure development disparity—a case study of city districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Int J Urban Sustain Dev. https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2017.1320286
Rana IA, Bhatti SS, Saqib ES (2017b) The spatial and temporal dynamics of infrastructure development disparity—from assessment to analyses. Cities 63:20–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.020
Saqib SE, Ahmad MM, Panezai S, Rana IA (2016) An empirical assessment of farmers’ risk attitudes in flood-prone areas of Pakistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 18:107–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.007
Schneiderbauer S, Ehrlich D (2006) Social levels and hazard (in) dependence in determining vulnerability. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University—Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Tokyo, pp 78–102
Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, Wandel J (2000) An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Clim Change 45:223–251. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005661622966
Smith K, Petley D (2008) Environmental hazard. Assessing risk and reducing disaster, 5th edn. Routledge, New York
Solberg K (2010) Worst floods in living memory leave Pakistan in paralysis. Lancet 376:1039–1040. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61469-9
Strunz G, Post J, Zosseder K et al (2011) Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:67–82. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-67-2011
Su S, Pi J, Wan C et al (2015) Categorizing social vulnerability patterns in Chinese coastal cities. Ocean Coast Manag 116:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.06.026
Tate E (2012) Social vulnerability indices: a comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Nat Hazards 63:325–347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0152-2
Thywissen K (2006) Components of risk: a comparative glossary. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University—Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Tokyo, pp 448–495
Toufique KA, Islam A (2014) Assessing risks from climate variability and change for disaster-prone zones in Bangladesh. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 10:236–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.08.008
Turner BL, Kasperson RE, Matson PA et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:8074–8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
UNISDR (2004) Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction initiatives. UNISDR, Geneva
UNISDR (2009) UNISDR terminology for disaster risk reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland
UNOCHA (2013) 2013 global focus model. OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OCHA ROAP), Bangkok
Walker BB, Taylor-Noonan C, Tabbernor A et al (2014) A multi-criteria evaluation model of earthquake vulnerability in Victoria, British Columbia. Nat Hazards 10:50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1240-2
Willroth P, Revilla Diez J, Arunotai N (2011) Modelling the economic vulnerability of households in the Phang-Nga Province (Thailand) to natural disasters. Nat Hazards 58:753–769. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9635-1
Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I (2004) At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters, 2nd edn. Routledge, London
Yoon DK (2012) Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study. Nat Hazards 63:823–843. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0189-2
Zheng Z, Qi S, Xu Y (2013) Questionable frequent occurrence of urban flood hazards in modern cities of China. Nat Hazards 65:1009–1010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0397-9
Zhou Y, Liu Y, Wu W, Li N (2015) Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China. Nat Hazards 78:257–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1713-y
Acknowledgements
Authors would like to thank anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments and suggestions for the improvement in this article. The authors would further like to express their gratitude to the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand, and the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan for supporting this study through research funds and granting scholarship for the doctoral studies of the first author.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rana, I.A., Routray, J.K. Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan. Nat Hazards 91, 239–266 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3124-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3124-8