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The impact of behavior on the risk of injury and death during an earthquake: a simulation-based study

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Abstract

The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Israeli Ministry of Science, Technology and Space and the National Steering Committee for earthquake preparedness for their support in this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. PREPARED - Center for Emergency Response Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O. Box 653, Beer-Sheva, Israel

    Stav Shapira, Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel

  2. Department of Emergency Medicine, Leon and Mathilde Recanati School for Community Health Professions, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O. Box 653, 84105, Beer-Sheva, Israel

    Stav Shapira, Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel

  3. Geological Survey of Israel, 30 Malkhe Israel Street, 95501, Jerusalem, Israel

    Tsafrir Levi

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  1. Stav Shapira
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  2. Tsafrir Levi
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Correspondence to Stav Shapira.

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Shapira, S., Levi, T., Bar-Dayan, Y. et al. The impact of behavior on the risk of injury and death during an earthquake: a simulation-based study. Nat Hazards 91, 1059–1074 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3167-5

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