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Coupling sentiment and human mobility in natural disasters: a Twitter-based study of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

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Abstract

Understanding population dynamics during natural disasters is important to build urban resilience in preparation for extreme events. Social media has emerged as an important source for disaster managers to identify dynamic polarity of sentiments over the course of disasters, to understand human mobility patterns, and to enhance decision making and disaster recovery efforts. Although there is a growing body of literature on sentiment and human mobility in disaster contexts, the spatiotemporal characteristics of sentiment and the relationship between sentiment and mobility over time have not been investigated in detail. This study therefore addresses this research gap and proposes a new lens to evaluate population dynamics during disasters by coupling sentiment and mobility. We collected 3.74 million geotagged tweets over 8 weeks to examine individuals’ sentiment and mobility before, during and after the M6.0 South Napa, California Earthquake in 2014. Our research results reveal that the average sentiment level decreases with the increasing intensity of the earthquake. We found that similar levels of sentiment tended to cluster in geographical space, and this spatial autocorrelation was significant over areas of different earthquake intensities. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between temporal dynamics of sentiment and mobility. We examined the trend and seasonality of the time series and found cointegration between the series. We included effects of the earthquake and built a segmented regression model to describe the time series finding that day-to-day changes in sentiment can either lead or lag daily changed mobility patterns. This study contributes a new lens to assess the dynamic process of disaster resilience unfolding over large spatial scales.

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Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1760645 and a Virginia Tech BioBuild IGEP grant. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or Virginia Tech.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, 121 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA

    Yan Wang

  2. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Mason 4140c, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA

    John E. Taylor

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  1. Yan Wang
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  2. John E. Taylor
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Correspondence to John E. Taylor.

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Wang, Y., Taylor, J.E. Coupling sentiment and human mobility in natural disasters: a Twitter-based study of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake. Nat Hazards 92, 907–925 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3231-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3231-1

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