Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The effect of local labor market conditions in the 1990s on the likelihood of community college students’ persistence and attainment

  • Published:
Research in Higher Education Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of local labor market conditions on the year-to-year persistence and attainment decisions of a sample of traditional-aged students who attended community colleges during the 1990s. The findings suggest that the enrollment and attainment decisions of these first-time community college students were not made purely as a response to changes in tuition costs, but rather the result of a more interconnected process whereby changes in tuition, local labor market conditions, and the relative change in both are considered. For those who are sensitive to these relative costs, the likelihood of dropping out is increased. Of those who remained enrolled, the evidence suggests that an increase in tuition appears to provide an incentive or extra motivation to finish a degree, especially an associate’s degree. This finding does not support the raising of in-state tuition to improve student outcomes; rather it draws attention to the complexity involved in student persistence and attainment decision-making.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

FIG. 1.
FIG. 2.
FIG. 3.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adelman C. (1999). Answers in the Tool Box: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor’s Degree Attainment. Washington, DC: Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education

    Google Scholar 

  • Adelman C. (2004). Principal Indicators of Student Academic Histories in Postsecondary Education, 1972–2000. Washington, DC: Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education

    Google Scholar 

  • Adelman C. (2005). Moving into Town-and Moving On: The Community College in the Lives of Traditional-Age Students. Washington, DC: Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U.S. Department of Education

    Google Scholar 

  • Adelman C., Daniel B., Berkovits I. (2003). Postsecondary Attainment, Attendance, Curriculum, and Performance: Selected Results from the NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Education Transcript Study (PETS). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education

    Google Scholar 

  • Alfonso, M. (2005). What Students of Different Racial/Ethnic Groups do after High School: An Empirical Analysis with Focus on why Students Attend 2-year Colleges. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Montreal, Quebec

  • Allen D. (1999). Desire to finish college: An empirical link between motivation and persistence. Research in Higher Education, 40(4): 461–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allison, P. D. (1984). Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data. (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series paper 46). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage University Publications

  • Arkes J. (2005). Using Unemployment Rates as Instruments to Estimate Returns to Schooling. Unpublished manuscript, Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation

    Google Scholar 

  • Bailey, T. R., and Alfonso, M. (2005). Paths to persistence: An analysis of research on program effectiveness at community colleges. Lumina Foundation for Education New Agenda Series, 6(1)

  • Bailey T. R., Leinbach D. T., Scott M., Alfonso M., Kienzl G.S., Kennedy B. (2004). The Characteristics of Occupational Sub-Baccalaureate Students Entering the New Millennium. New York, NY: Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker G. (1967). Human Capital and the Personal Distribution of Income: An Analytical Approach. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Betts J. R., McFarland L. L. (1995). Safe port in a storm: The impact of labor market conditions on community college enrollments. Journal of Human Resources 30(4): 741–765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cabrera A. F., Nora A., Castaneda M. B. (1992). The role of finances in the persistence process: A structural model. Research in Higher Education 33(5): 571–593

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cofer J., Somers P. (2000a). A comparison of the influence of debtload on the persistence of students at public and private colleges. Journal of Student Financial Aid 30(2):39–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Cofer J., Somers P. (2000b). Within-year persistence of students at 2-year colleges. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 24(10): 785–807

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DesJardins S. L., Ahlburg D. A., McCall B. P. (2002). Simulating the longitudinal effects of changes in financial aid on student departure from college. The Journal of Human Resources 37(3):653–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dowd A. C., Coury T. (2006). The effect of loans on the persistence and attainment of community college students. Research in Higher Education 47(1): 33–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grubb W. N. (2002). Learning and earning in the middle, part I: National studies of pre-baccalaureate education. Economics of Education Review 21(4): 299–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grubb, W.N., and associates (1999). Honored but Invisible: An Inside Look at Teaching in Community Colleges. New York, NY: Routledge

  • Gustman A. L., Steinmeier T. L. (1981). The impact of wages and unemployment on youth enrollment and labor supply. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63(4): 553–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hippensteel D. G., St. John E. P., Starkey J. B. (1996). Influence of tuition and student aid on within-year persistence by adults in 2-year colleges. Community College Journal of Research and Practice 20(3): 233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horn L., Berger R. (2004). College Persistence on the Rise? Changes in 5-year Degree Completion and Postsecondary Persistence Rates between 1994 and 2000. (NCES 2005–156). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane T. J., Rouse C. E. (1999). The community college: Educating students at the margin between college and work. Journal of Economic Perspectives 13(1): 63–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang K.-Y., Zeger S. L. (1986). Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear methods. Biometrika 73(1): 13–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Light A. (1996). Hazard model estimates of the decision to reenroll in school. Labour Economics 2(4): 381–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipsitz S. R., Laird N. M., Harrington D. P. (1991). Generalized estimating equations for correlated binary data: Using the odds ratio as a measure of association. Biometrika 78(1): 153–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manski C. F., Wise D. A. (1983). College Choice in America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Marcotte D., Bailey T. R., Borkoski C., Kienzl G. S. (2005). The returns to education at community colleges: Evidence from the National Education Longitudinal Survey. Education Evaluation and Policy Analysis 27(2): 157–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mincer J. (1974). Schooling, Experience and Earnings. New York, NY: Columbia University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Muthén B. O., Satorra A. (1995). Complex sample data in structural equation modeling. Sociological Methodology 25: 267–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Napoli A. R., Wortman P. M. (1998). Psychosocial factors related to retention and early departure of 2-year community college students. Research in Higher Education 39(4):419–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neuhaus J. M., Kalbfleisch J. D., Hauck W. W. (1991). A comparison of cluster-specific and population-averaged approaches for analyzing correlated binary data. International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique 59(1): 25–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ordovensky J. F. (1995). Effects of institutional attributes on enrollment choice: Implications for postsecondary vocational education. Economics of Education Review 14(4): 335–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pascarella E. T., Terenzini P. T. (2005). How College Affects Students: Volume 2: A Third Decade of Research. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass

    Google Scholar 

  • Rouse C. E. (1994). What to do after high school: The 2-year versus 4-year college enrollment decision. In: Ehrenberg R. G. (eds.) Choices and Consequences: Contemporary Policy Issues in Education. Ithaca, NY: ILR Press, pp. 59–88

    Google Scholar 

  • Rouse C. E. (1995). Democratization or diversion? The effect of community colleges on educational attainment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13(2):217–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider B., Stevenson D. (1999). The Ambitious Generation: America’s Teenagers, Motivated but Directionless. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott, M., and Kennedy, B. (2005). Pitfalls in pathways: Some perspectives on competing risks event history analysis in education research. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 30(4)

  • Singer J. D., Willett J. B. (2003). Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence. New York, NY: Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • St.John E. P., Starkey J. B. (1994). The influence of costs on persistence by traditional college-age students in community colleges. Community College Journal of Research and Practice 18(2): 201–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stratton, L., O’Toole, D., and Wetzel, J. (2005). A Multinomial Logit Model of College Stopout and Dropout Behavior (Discussion paper 1634). Bonn, Germany, IZA

  • Thomas S. L., Heck R. H. (2001). Analysis of large-scale secondary data in higher education research: Potential perils associated with complex sampling designs. Research in Higher Education 42(5): 517–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas S. L., Heck R. H., Bauer K. W. (2005). Weighting and adjusting for design effects in secondary data analyses. New Directions for Institutional Research, 127: 51–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tinto V. (1993). Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Tolbert C. M., Sizer M. (1996). U.S. Commuting Zones and Labor Market Areas: A 1990 Update. Washington, DC: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

    Google Scholar 

  • Winship C., Radbill L. (1994). Sampling weights and regression analysis. Sociological Methods and Research 23(2): 230–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeger S. L., Liang K.-Y. (1986). Longitudinal data analysis for discrete and continuous outcomes. Biometrics 42(1): 121–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeger S. L., Liang K-Y., Albert P. S. (1988). Models for longitudinal data: A generalized estimating equation approach Biometrics, 44(4): 1049–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Tom Bailey, Juan Carlos Calcagno, Tim Leinbach, Lisa Hudson, participants of the Society for Economics and Education meeting, and two anonymous reviewers. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the American Institutes for Research, Inter-American Development Bank, and the University of Southern California, respectively.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. American Institutes for Research, 1990 K St, NW, Fifth Floor, Washington, DC, 20006, USA

    Gregory S. Kienzl

  2. Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA

    Mariana Alfonso

  3. Rossier School of Education, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Tatiana Melguizo

Authors
  1. Gregory S. Kienzl
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mariana Alfonso
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Tatiana Melguizo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gregory S. Kienzl.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kienzl, G.S., Alfonso, M. & Melguizo, T. The effect of local labor market conditions in the 1990s on the likelihood of community college students’ persistence and attainment. Res High Educ 48, 751–774 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-007-9050-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-007-9050-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation