Abstract
We obtain exact large deviation rates for the log-likelihood ratio in testing models with observed Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and get explicit rates of decrease for the error probabilities of Neyman–Pearson, Bayes, and minimax tests. Moreover, we give expressions for the rates of decrease for the error probabilities of Neyman–Pearson tests in models with observed processes solving affine stochastic delay differential equations.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bahadur RR (1960). Asymptotic efficiency of tests and estimates. Sankhya 22: 229–252
Bahadur RR (1967). Rates of convergence of estimates and test statistics. Annal Math Stat 38: 303–324
Bahadur RR (1971). Some limit theorems in statistics. SIAM, Philadelphia
Bahadur RR, Zabell SL, Gupta JC (1980) Large deviations, tests and estimates. In: Chakravarti IM (ed) Asymptotic theory of statistical tests and estimation. Volume in Honor of Wassily Hoeffding. Academic Press, New York, pp. 33–64
Björk T (1997) Interest rate theory. In: Rungaldier W (ed) Financial mathematics Lecture notes in mathematics 1656 Springer, Berlin
Borodin AN and Salminen P (1996). Handbook of Brownian Motion – Facts and Formulae. Birkhäuser, Basel
Borovkov AA (1984) Mathematical Statistics. Moscow, Nauka (in Russian); English translation: (1998) Gordon and Breach, Amsterdam
Birgé L (1981). Vitesses maximales de décroissance des erreurs et tests optimaux associés. Zeits Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und verwandte Gebiete 55: 261–273
Chernoff H (1952). A measure of asymptotic efficiency for tests of hypothesis based on the sum of observations. Annal Math Stat 23: 493–507
Dacunha-Castelle D and Duflo M (1986). Probability and Statistics I. Springer, New York
Dietz HM (1992). A non-Markovian relative of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and some of its local statistical properties. Scand J of Stat 19: 363–379
Gushchin AA and Küchler U (1999). Asymptotic inference for a linear stochastic differential equation with time delay. Bernoulli 5(3): 483–493
Gushchin AA and Küchler U (2000). On stationary solutions of delay differential equations driven by a Lévy process. Stoch Process Appl 88: 195–211
Gushchin AA and Küchler U (2001). Addendum to ’Asymptotic inference for a linear stochastic differential equation with time delay’. Bernoulli 7: 629–632
Gushchin AA and Küchler U (2003). On parametric statistical models for stationary solutions of affine stochastic delay differential equations. Math Meth Stat 12(1): 31–61
Jacod J and Shiryaev AN (1987). Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes. Springer, Berlin
Küchler U and Kutoyants YA (2000). Delay estimation for some stationary diffusion-type processes. Scand J Stat 27(3): 405–414
Küchler U, Vasil’ev VA (2001) On guaranteed parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations with time delay by noisy observations. Discussion Paper 14 of Sonderforschungsbereich 373, Humboldt University Berlin, 25 pp
Kutoyants YA (2004). Statistical Inference for Ergodic Diffusion Processes. Springer Series in Statistics, New York
Kutoyants YA (2005). On delay estimation for stochastic differential equations. Stoch Dynamics 5(2): 333–342
Lin’kov YN (1993) Asymptotic Statistical Methods for Stochastic Processes. Naukova Dumka, Kiev (in Russian); English translation: (2001) American Mathematical Society, Providence, R:I
Lin’kov YN (1999). Large deviation theorems for extended random variables and some applications. J Math Sci 93(4): 563–573
Lin’kov YN (2002) Large deviations in testing of models with fractional Brownian motion. University of Helsinki, Preprint, 14 pp
Liptser RS and Shiryaev AN (1977). Statistics of Random Processes I. Springer, Berlin
Putschke U (2000) Affine stochastische Funktionaldifferentialgleichungen und lokal asymptotische Eigenschaften ihrer Parameterschätzungen. Doctoral Dissertation, Humboldt University of Berlin, Institute of Mathematics
Rockafellar RT (1970). Convex Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Szimayer A and Maller R (2004). Testing for mean reversion in processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type. Stat Inf Stoch Process 7(2): 95–113
Vajda I (1990). Generalization of discrimination-rate theorems of Chernoff and Stein. Cybernetics 26(4): 273–288
Vasiček OA (1977). An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. J Finan Econ 5: 177–188
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gapeev, P.V., Küchler, U. On large deviations in testing Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type models. Stat Infer Stoch Process 11, 143–155 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11203-007-9012-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11203-007-9012-1
Keywords
- Likelihood ratio
- Hellinger integral
- Neyman–Pearson test
- Bayes test
- Minimax test
- Large deviation theorems
- Girsanov formula for diffusion-type processes
- Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type process
- Stochastic delay differential equation