Abstract
Residential water use constitutes a major part of urban water demand, and has be gaining importance in the urban water supply. Considering the complexity of residential water use system, an agent-based social simulation, i.e. the Residential Water Use Model (RWUM), is developed in this paper to capture the behavioral characteristics of residential water usage. By disaggregating total water demands down to constituent end-uses, this model can evaluate heterogeneous consumer responses on water, taking into account the factors of market penetration of water-saving technologies, regulatory policies, economic development, as well as social consciousness and preferences. Also, uncertainty analysis technique is innovatively applied in this agent-based model for parameter calibration and model robust testing. According to the case study in Beijing, this model can provide insights to water management agency in evaluating different water usage polices, as well as estimations for potential water saving for future infrastructure development planning.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alcocer-Yamanaka VH, Tzatchkov V, Buchberger S (2006) Instantaneous water demand parameter estimation from coarse meter readings. In: 8th annual water distribution systems analysis symposium, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, 27–30 August 2006
Alcocer-Yamanaka VH, Tzatchkov VG, Buchberger SG, Arreguin FIC, Feliciano GD (2004) Stochastic residential water demand characterization. In: Proceedings of the 2004 world water and environmental resources congress, 27 June–1 July, 2004, Salt Lake City, UT
Alvisi S, Franchini M, Marinelli A (2003) A stochastic model for representing drinking water demand at residential level. Water Resour Manag 17:197–222. doi:10.1023/A:1024100518186
Bars ML, Attonaty JM, Pinson S (2002) An agent-based simulation for water sharing between different users. In: International proceedings of the first international joint conference on autonomous agents and multi agent systems, Bologna, Italy
Beck MB (1987) Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty. Water Resour Res 23(8):1393–1442. doi:10.1029/WR023i008p01393
Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics (2004) Beijing statistical yearbook 2005. China Statistics, Beijing
Beijing Municipal Government (2001) Tenth-five year plan for social and economic development of Beijing (in Chinese)
Berger T (2001) Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis. Agric Econ 25(2–3):245–260. doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00205.x
Blokker EJM, Buchberger SG, Vreeburg JHG, van Dijk JC (2008) Comparison of water demand models: PRP and SIMDEUM applied to Milford, Ohio data. In: Van Zyl JE, Ilemobade AA, Jacobs HE (eds) Proceedings of the 10th annual water distribution systems analysis conference WDSA2008, 17–20 August, 2008, Kruger National Park, South Africa
Brook PJ, Smith SM (2001) Making water affordable: output-based consumption subsidies in Chile. The World Bank, Washington, DC
Brown and Caldwell Consultants (1984) Residential water conservation projects. Prepared for U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research. Report HUD-PDR-903. Washington, D.C.
Chen J, Beck MB (1999) Quality assurance of multi-media model for predictive screening tasks. United States EPA project report, EPA/600/R-98/106
China Price Information Center (CPIC) (2004) China market price monitoring report, March (in Chinese)
Chu JY, Chen JN, Zou J (2002) Future scale and market capacity of urban water environmental infrastructure in China: a system dynamic model. Environ Sci 23(4):1–7 (in Chinese)
Chu JY, Chen JN, Wang C, Fu P (2004) Wastewater reuse potential analysis: implications for China’s water resources management. Water Res 38(11):2746–2756. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2004.04.002
Dong FX, Dong XD (2000) Urban & industry water conservation theory. China Architecture & Building, Beijing (in Chinese)
Downing TE, Moss S, Wostl CP (2000) Understanding climate policy using participatory agent-based social simulation. In: Moss S, Davidsson P (eds) MABS 2000, LNAI 1979. Berlin, Springer, pp 198–213
Dziegielewski B (2000) Efficient and inefficient uses of water in North American households. In: Proceedings of IWRA’s Xth world water congress, Melbourne, Australia, 12–16 March
Edmonds B (2000) The use of models-making mabs more informative. In: Moss S, Davidsson P (eds) MABS 2000, LNAI 1979. Springer, Berlin, pp 15–32
Edmonds B, Bartheleny O, Moss S (2002). Domestic water demand and social influence—an agent-based modelling approach. CPM Report 02–103
Espey M, Espey J, Shaw W (1997) Price elasticity of residential demand for water: a meta-analysis. Water Resour Res 33(6):1369–1374. doi:10.1029/97WR00571
Gleick PH, Haasz D, Henges-Jeck C, Srinivasan V, Wolff G, Cushing KK, Mann A (2003) Waste not, want not: the potential for urban water conservation in California. Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, California
Gotts NM, Polhill JG, Law ANR (2003a) Aspiration levels in a land use simulation. Cybern Syst 34(8):663–683. doi:10.1080/716100277
Gotts NM, Polhill JG, Law ANR, Izquierdo IR (2003b) Dynamics of imitation in a land use simulation. In: Proceedings of the AISB ‘03 second international symposium on imitation in animals and artifacts. University of Wales, Aberystwyth, pp 7–11 and pp 39–46
Hare MP (2000) Agent-base integrated assessment of policies for reducing groundwater pollution by nitrates from agricultural fertilizer, part I: pilot study model description and initial results. Working Report, Swiss Federal Institute of Environmental Science and Technology
He JP, Li SS (2002) Status of urban domestic water use devices and management strategies in Beijing, Beijing Urban Water Saving Office. In: Proceedings of urban domestic water use devices and high efficient water conservation technologies (in Chinese)
Herrington P (1997) Pricing water properly. In: O’Riordan T (ed) Ecotaxation. Earthscan, London, pp 263–286
Hewitt JA, Hanemann WM (1995) A discrete/continuous choice approach to residential water demand under block rate pricing. Land Econ 71(2):173–192. doi:10.2307/3146499
Hiebeler D (1994) The swarm simulation system and individual-based modeling. In: Power JM, Strome M, Daniel TC (eds) Decision support 2001: 17th annual geographic information seminar and the resource technology ‘94 symposium, Toronto, vol 1, pp 474–494
Howe CW, Linaweaver FP (1967) The impact of price on residential water demand and its relationship to system design and price structure. Water Resour Bull 3(1):13–32. doi:10.1029/WR003i001p00013
Inocencio AB, Padilla JE, Javier EP (1999) Determination of basic household water requirements. Philippine Institute for Development Studies discussion paper series (No. 99–02)
Izquierdo LR, Gotts NM, Polhill JG (2003) FEARLUS-W: an agent-based model of river basin land use and water management. Paper presented at “Framing land use dynamics: integrating knowledge on spatial dynamics in socio-economic and environmental systems for spatial planning in western urbanized countries”, international conference 16–18 April, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Janssen M, Jager W (1999) An integrated approach to simulating behavioral processes: a case study of the lock-in of consumption patterns. JASSS 2(2):21–35
Koomey JG, Dunham C and Lutz JD (1994) The effect of efficiency standards on water use and water heating energy use in the U.S.: a detailed end-use treatment. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory report (LBL-35475)
Langton C, Minar N, Burkhart R (1995) The swarm simulation system: a tool for studying complex systems. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
Leydesdorff L (2002) The complex dynamics of technological innovation: a comparison of models using cellular automata. Syst Res Behav Sci 19(6):563–575. doi:10.1002/sres.482
Lubwama FB (1999) Socio-economic and gender issues affecting the adoption of conservation tillage practices. In: Kaumbutho PG, Simalenga TE (eds) Conservation tillage with animal traction. A resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA). Zimbabwe, Harare
Marietto MB, David N, Sichman JS, Coelho HA (2003) Classification of paradigmatic models for agent-based social simulation. In: Hales D et al. (eds) MABS 2003, LNAI 2927, pp 193–208
Martin WE, Thomas JF (1986) Policy relevance in studies of urban residential water demand. Water Resour Res 22(13):1735–1741. doi:10.1029/WR022i013p01735
Mayer P, DeOreo W, Opitz E, Kiefer J, Davis W, Dziegielewski B, Nelson JO (1999) Residential end uses of water. AWWA Research Foundation, Denver
Mayer PW, DeOreo WB, Lewis DM (2000) Results from the Seattle home water conservation study–the impact of high efficiency plumbing fixture retrofits in single-family homes. Aquacraft Inc. Water Engineering and Management, Colorado, Boulder
Mayer PW, DeOreo WB, Towler E, Lewis DM (2003) Residential indoor water conservation study: evaluation of high efficiency indoor plumbing fixture retrofits in single-family homes in the East Bay municipal utility district service area, prepared to East Bay municipal utility district and the United States Environmental Protection Agency, July
Ministry of Construction P. R. China (MOC) (2002a) The standard of water quantity for city’s residential use, GB/T 50331–2002 (in Chinese)
Ministry of Construction P. R. China (MOC) (2002b) The standard of domestic water saving devices, CJ164–2002 (in Chinese)
Mou MM (2003) Absence of water crisis consciousness. Jinan Dly 20 (March) (in Chinese)
Ostrom E, Gardner R, Walker JM (1994) Rules, games, & common-pool resources. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor
Pan JZ, Zhang ZZ (2001) Reasonable allocation of water resources in North China and issues on south to north water transfer. China Water Power, Beijing (in Chinese)
Peter WM, William B, DeOreo ET, Lewis DM (2003) Residential indoor water conservation study: evaluation of high efficiency indoor plumbing fixture retrofits in single-family homes in the East Bay Municipal Utility District Service Area. Prepared to East Bay Municipal Utility District and The United States Environmental Protection Agency
Phan D (2004) From agent-based computational economics towards cognitive economics. In: Bourgine P, Nadal JP (eds) Cognitive economics: an interdisciplinary approach. Springer
Sarac K, Day D, White S (2003) What are we saving anyway? The results of three water demand management programs in NSW, Australia. Water Supply 3(3):215–222
Seattle Public Utilities Commission (SPUC) (1999) Water conservation potential assessment. Available at: http://www.cityofseattle.net/util/
Simon HA (1957) A behavioral model of rational choice (Quarterly Journal of Economics 69:99–118, 1995)
Terna P (1998) Simulation tools for social scientists: building agent based models with SWARM. JASSS 1(2). http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS/1/2/4.html
Tesfatsion L (2002) Agent-based computational economics: growing economies from the bottom up. Artif Life 8(1):55–82. doi:10.1162/106454602753694765
Tesfatsion L, Judd K (eds) (2006) Handbook of computational economics, vol 2: agent-based computational economics, 1st edn. North Holland, Amsterdam
Thomas JF, Syme GJ (1988) Estimating residential price elasticity of demand for water: a contingent valuation approach. Water Resour Res 24(11):1847–1857. doi:10.1029/WR024i011p01847
Tillman D, Larsen TA, Pahl WC, Gujer W (2001) Interaction analysis of stakeholders in water supply systems. Water Sci Technol 43(5):319–326
Vickers A (2001) Handbook of water use and conservation. Waterplow, Amherst, Massachusetts
Water Resources Engineering Inc. (2002) East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) water conservation market penetration study final report
Wei Y, Zhang L, Fan Y (2002) Swarm based study on complexity in flood disaster. J Manag Sci China 5(6):39–46 (in Chinese)
Zhang HH (2003a) Residential water use: its implications for municipal water planning: a case study of Beijing. Sustainable water resources management in the Beijing-Tianjin region: a Canada-China collaborative research initiative project report
Zhang JJ (2003b) An economic analysis of wastewater reclamation and its policy implication. Master Thesis of Tsinghua University, Beijing (in Chinese)
Zhu Y, Ye MQ (2001) A SWARM-based warning system model for regional sustainable development. J Financ Econ 28(1):57–63 (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chu, J., Wang, C., Chen, J. et al. Agent-Based Residential Water Use Behavior Simulation and Policy Implications: A Case-Study in Beijing City. Water Resour Manage 23, 3267–3295 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9433-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9433-2