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Performance of a Monthly Streamflow Prediction Model for Ungauged Watersheds in Spain

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Abstract

Climate change, drought and the world’s growing population are increasing the demand for water which in turn requires improved water resources management. The sustainable management of a watershed requires a thorough knowledge of its water resources, including monthly streamflow. Spain is home to a large number of ungauged watersheds, the streamflows of which are often unknown. Chavez et al. (2007) reported a model for predicting monthly streamflow in ungauged watersheds that was validated for use in areas of tropical climate in Central America and a dry area in South America. This work reports an attempt to assess the performance of this model for eventual use with ungauged watersheds in Spain, using data for a number of watersheds for which gauging data were available. The proposed model took into account physical characteristics such us the soil infiltration rate, the slope of the terrain, plant fractional cover, the monthly moisture adequacy index, and the leaf area index. Comparisons of model-predicted monthly streamflows and those actually measured showed the Chavez et al. model unable to make reliable predictions for Spanish watersheds in its current form. A new approach has been developed considering only smaller watersheds in Spanish conditions, changing parameters in the original model. These parameters have been calibrated and validated, reaching adequate adjustment of results.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Grupo Tragsa for its support, provided via its funding of the project “Proyecto hidrológico de pequeñas cuencas no aforadas.” We are grateful to Dr. José Carlos Robredo for facilitating the climate data used in this study. In addition, we are thankful to anonymous reviewers who through their comments and suggestions made possible the improvement of the quality of this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. BIPREE Research Group, Polytechnic University of Madrid (Spain), ETSIAgronomos, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    J. Vicente-Guillén, E. Ayuga-Telléz, F. Ayuga & A. I. García

  2. TRAGSATEC Engineering Water Section, C/ Julián Camarillo 6 B 4C, 28037, Madrid, Spain

    D. Otero

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, 1372 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1372, USA

    J. L. Chávez

Authors
  1. J. Vicente-Guillén
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  2. E. Ayuga-Telléz
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  3. D. Otero
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  4. J. L. Chávez
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  5. F. Ayuga
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  6. A. I. García
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Correspondence to F. Ayuga.

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Vicente-Guillén, J., Ayuga-Telléz, E., Otero, D. et al. Performance of a Monthly Streamflow Prediction Model for Ungauged Watersheds in Spain. Water Resour Manage 26, 3767–3784 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0102-5

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