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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

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Abstract

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951004) and Chinese Academy of Sciences Visiting Professorship for Senior International Scientists (Grant No. 2011T2Z40). We are grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China

    Guangyang Wu, Lanhai Li, Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Guangyang Wu

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 S Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-4015, USA

    Sajjad Ahmad

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  1. Guangyang Wu
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  2. Lanhai Li
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  5. Xiangliang Pan
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Correspondence to Xi Chen or Xiangliang Pan.

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Wu, G., Li, L., Ahmad, S. et al. A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China. Water Resour Manage 27, 3085–3101 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z

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